Novara vs AlbinoLeffe: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced contest with a draw being the favored scenario. Novara displays a very high percentage of draws at home (54%), confirmed by their recent form of 4 draws in the last 5 home games. The hosts possess a better xG record in home matches (1.52 to 1.18), yet their low conversion rate (7%) and high percentage of goalless games (38%) limit their offensive capabilities. AlbinoLeffe shows better overall form (1.6 PPG vs 1.2 PPG), higher conversion (11%), and a higher average of goals scored away (1.08), but simultaneously concedes heavily (1.5 per match). The visitors also draw frequently on the road (42%), and their recent away fixtures reveal difficulties in securing wins. Given the similar possession stats for both teams (52%), Novara's tendency to draw at home, and AlbinoLeffe's defensive instability despite their offensive potential, the most likely outcome is a share of points.
Novara vs AlbinoLeffe: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Novara played AlbinoLeffe in Serie C Group A (Italy). The match was played on 11 February 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Novara: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. AlbinoLeffe: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Novara scores 0.88 and concedes 0.96 goals per match. AlbinoLeffe scores 1.36 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Novara 52%, AlbinoLeffe 68%. Over 2.5: Novara 24%, AlbinoLeffe 60%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Novara has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.38. Novara: 11.1 shots per match, AlbinoLeffe: 10.7.
Match halves
Novara: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.36. AlbinoLeffe: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Novara: 31-45+ (6 goals). AlbinoLeffe: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group A: 2.25 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a balanced contest with a draw being the favored scenario. Novara displays a very high percentage of draws at home (54%), confirmed by their recent form of 4 draws in the last 5 home games. The hosts possess a better xG record in home matches (1.52 to 1.18), yet their low conversion rate (7%) and high percentage of goalless games (38%) limit their offensive capabilities. AlbinoLeffe shows better overall form (1.6 PPG vs 1.2 PPG), higher conversion (11%), and a higher average of goals scored away (1.08), but simultaneously concedes heavily (1.5 per match). The visitors also draw frequently on the road (42%), and their recent away fixtures reveal difficulties in securing wins. Given the similar possession stats for both teams (52%), Novara's tendency to draw at home, and AlbinoLeffe's defensive instability despite their offensive potential, the most likely outcome is a share of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Novara | AlbinoLeffe | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AlbinoLeffe is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Novara · 1.6 pts / match - AlbinoLeffe
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AlbinoLeffe is 55% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Novara · 1.36 goals / match - AlbinoLeffe
Novara is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.96 goals / match - Novara · 1.52 goals / match - AlbinoLeffe
Novara scores in 64% of matches (16 of 25 matches), while AlbinoLeffe keeps a clean sheet in 20% (5 of 25 matches).
AlbinoLeffe scores in 80% of matches (20 of 25 matches), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Novara
Over / Under - AlbinoLeffe
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Novara is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Novara · 1.04 pts / match - AlbinoLeffe
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Novara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AlbinoLeffe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Novara
AlbinoLeffe
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Novara | Liga | AlbinoLeffe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.84 | 2.25 | ▲ 2.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 49% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 39% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 30% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 66% | ▲ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 71% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Novara 0 - 0 - 1 AlbinoLeffe. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Novara vs AlbinoLeffe?
The Serie C Group A match finished Novara 2:2 AlbinoLeffe. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Novara vs AlbinoLeffe?
Novara score 0.88 goals per game on average and AlbinoLeffe 1.36. The Serie C Group A average is 2.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Novara's matches and 68% of AlbinoLeffe's.
What form are Novara and AlbinoLeffe in?
Over the last 5 games Novara have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and AlbinoLeffe 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Novara vs AlbinoLeffe?
The statistical background for Novara vs AlbinoLeffe — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.