Novara vs Athletic Carpi: match statistics

Both teams have collected 5 points from their last five matches, recording identical records of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, so the difference in form is minimal. Athletic Carpi nevertheless show greater attacking potential: away from home, they average 10.5 shots, including 4 on target, compared with Novara’s 10 shots and just 2 on target in home matches. The visitors have not yet failed to score in an away game, whereas Novara have been held scoreless in 50% of their home fixtures. Carpi also create slightly better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.56 compared with the hosts’ 1.33. Both defences concede an average of 1.5 goals per match in their respective conditions, but the visitors’ superior attacking quality gives them a marginally better chance of securing the win.

The case for goals from both sides is supported by the fact that Novara’s current home data shows BTTS at 100%, and they have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.5 goals. Athletic Carpi have also failed to finish any match without scoring, while BTTS has landed in 80% of their last 5 games. Both teams create enough chances: their average xG stands at 1.61 for Novara and 1.56 for Carpi, while their latest xG figures are 1.32 and 1.79 respectively. The hosts’ defence is particularly favourable for a goal from the away side, with average xG conceded at 2.29, while Carpi have recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game. The main risk to the pick is Novara’s weaker recent attacking output, with just 0.8 goals per match across their last five appearances. However, Carpi’s defence allowed opponents 1.93 xG during that period, so the BTTS scenario remains marginally more likely.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Novara have surpassed this line in 100% of their matches so far, compared with 50% for Athletic Carpi. The hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 2.5 goals, while their opponents create chances worth an average of 1.56 xG per match. Carpi also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 1.5 goals and allowing opponents 1.73 xG, which supports Novara’s chances of scoring. Novara’s last five matches have been somewhat more subdued, but Carpi have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game during this period, so the projected total of 2.80 goals still clearly favors at least two goals.

Recent form clearly favors Athletic Carpi before half-time: the team held a lead at the break in 60% of its last five matches, while Novara failed to lead in any of them and were behind at half-time in 60%. During this period, Novara scored no goals before the break, whereas Carpi averaged 1.0 first-half goal. After the interval, however, the balance of power shifts in favor of the home side: Novara remain unbeaten in the second halves of their last five matches, recording 40% wins and 60% draws, while Carpi lost 60% of those periods. The visitors concede an average of 1.2 goals after half-time, while Novara score 0.8, strengthening the scenario of a one-goal turnaround. Therefore, the most likely outcome is Carpi leading at half-time, with Novara fighting back to level the match after the break — HT/FT: 2/X.