Novara vs Folgore Caratese: match statistics

Novara are showing better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.0 more points per game than Folgore Caratese over that span—1.8 compared with 1.0. The hosts scored 5 goals and conceded just 3 during this period, while the visitors netted 4 and allowed 6 goals. Folgore Caratese have won just 1 of their last five matches, with the other two ending in draws, indicating limited effectiveness in turning evenly balanced games into victories. Both teams have lost one match in the current competition, but the visitors’ 1:2 result in these data points to greater defensive problems than Novara’s 0:1 defeat. The form advantage and clearly superior goal difference across their last five outings favor a Novara win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given the relatively low scoring rates.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Novara recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches, while Folgore Caratese did so in 40%. Novara conceded just 0.6 goals per game during this period and kept a clean sheet in 2 of their 5 appearances, which limits the visitors’ chances of scoring. Folgore averaged only 0.8 goals scored across their last 5 matches, despite an xG of 1.60, meaning their attacking potential did not always translate into goals. The hosts scored 1.0 goal per game, and their recent results more often point to a scenario in which one side fails to score than to an open exchange of goals. Novara’s seasonal 100% BTTS rate is based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be given to the more recent five matches and the hosts’ stronger defensive record.

Novara’s last five matches produced a total of 8 goals, averaging 1.6 per game, with 5 goals scored and just 3 conceded. Over the same period, Folgore Caratese averaged 2.0 goals per match, having scored 4 and conceded 6. Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Novara’s last matches and 40% of Folgore’s, well below the league average of 50%. At the same time, Folgore’s xG of 1.60 and Novara’s xG against of 1.59 suggest that the visitors should create chances, which is why the forecast does not drop too low to 2.35 goals. Nevertheless, the combination of short-term results and the moderate attacking efficiency of both teams gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Novara have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals, while Folgore Caratese have won just once, alongside 2 draws and 2 defeats. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of their recent matches, compared with just 20% for the visitors; Novara averaged 1.0 goals before half-time, against only 0.2 for Folgore. The away side failed to score before the break in 80% of their last five appearances, reinforcing the scenario of Novara taking the lead in the first half. After the break, Folgore are more dangerous, averaging 0.6 goals, which makes the HT/FT 1/X outcome a significant alternative. Nevertheless, Novara have conceded only 0.6 goals per match recently, and their 60% win rate in this sample primarily supports them maintaining the lead until full-time, making 1/1 the preferred HT/FT selection.