Novara vs Pro Patria: match statistics
Novara, despite poor form in the last five matches (4 draws, 1 loss), presents significantly better disposition than Pro Patria, who are in a catastrophic streak of five consecutive defeats. The hosts remain solid at home, conceding an average of only 1 goal per match, while their xG (1.51) exceeds the achieved results, suggesting an underestimation of their offensive potential. Pro Patria is exceptionally weak away – 70% losses, just 10% victories, averaging 1.5 goals conceded and only 0.6 scored per match, with dismal xG (0.97 to 1.88). The difference in possession (52% vs 49%) and shot quality (4.18 vs 1.8 on target per match) speaks for the hosts. Although Novara often draws at home (55%), the dramatic form of the visitors and their helplessness in attack (50% FTS%) give a real chance for the hosts to break the drawing streak.
Novara vs Pro Patria: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Novara played Pro Patria in Serie C Group A (Italy). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Novara: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Pro Patria: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Novara scores 0.86 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Pro Patria scores 0.68 and concedes 1.73. League average: 2.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Novara 55%, Pro Patria 41%. Over 2.5: Novara 23%, Pro Patria 55%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Novara has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.12. Novara: 10.9 shots per match, Pro Patria: 8.6.
Match halves
Novara: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.36. Pro Patria: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Novara: 31-45+ (5 goals). Pro Patria: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group A: 2.23 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Novara, despite poor form in the last five matches (4 draws, 1 loss), presents significantly better disposition than Pro Patria, who are in a catastrophic streak of five consecutive defeats. The hosts remain solid at home, conceding an average of only 1 goal per match, while their xG (1.51) exceeds the achieved results, suggesting an underestimation of their offensive potential. Pro Patria is exceptionally weak away – 70% losses, just 10% victories, averaging 1.5 goals conceded and only 0.6 scored per match, with dismal xG (0.97 to 1.88). The difference in possession (52% vs 49%) and shot quality (4.18 vs 1.8 on target per match) speaks for the hosts. Although Novara often draws at home (55%), the dramatic form of the visitors and their helplessness in attack (50% FTS%) give a real chance for the hosts to break the drawing streak.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Novara | Pro Patria | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Novara is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - Novara · 0.68 goals / match - Pro Patria
Novara is 73% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Novara · 1.73 goals / match - Pro Patria
Novara scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while Pro Patria keeps a clean sheet in 18% (4 of 22 matches).
Pro Patria scores in 45% of matches (10 of 22 matches), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 32% (7 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Novara
Over / Under - Pro Patria
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Novara is 55% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Novara · 0.82 pts / match - Pro Patria
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Novara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Pro Patria - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 9%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Novara
Pro Patria
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Novara | Liga | Pro Patria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.86 | 2.23 | ▲ 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 50% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 23% | 39% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 30% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 66% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 64% | 70% | ▲ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Novara 0 - 1 - 0 Pro Patria. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Novara vs Pro Patria?
The Serie C Group A match finished Novara 3:1 Pro Patria. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Novara vs Pro Patria?
Novara score 0.86 goals per game on average and Pro Patria 0.68. The Serie C Group A average is 2.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Novara's matches and 41% of Pro Patria's.
What form are Novara and Pro Patria in?
Over the last 5 games Novara have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Pro Patria 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Novara vs Pro Patria?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.