Novi Pazar vs Radnički Kragujevac: match statistics

Radnički Kragujevac appears to be the favorite: the visitors conceded 4 goals in their last 5 matches versus 10 conceded by Novi Pazar, corresponding to 0.8 and 2.0 goals conceded per game respectively. In attack Radnički scored 8 goals in five matches (1.6 per game) versus the hosts’ 7 goals (1.4 per game), and the goal difference in this run is +4 for the visitors versus -3 for the hosts. The last 5 matches form shows Novi Pazar with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (DWDLL), while Radnički is unbeaten with 1 win and 4 draws (WDDDD), so the visitors have fewer defeats. Despite Novi Pazar’s higher league position (4th vs 8th), average points in the last 5 matches are 1.0 for the hosts and 1.4 for the visitors, which together with the better defence favors the visitors, although Radnički’s four draws increase the likelihood of a shared points outcome. Therefore I estimate a 55% probability for a Radnički win, 30% for a draw and 15% for a Novi Pazar win.

Novi Pazar has BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game (10 conceded in 5), which significantly increases the likelihood of the opponent scoring. Radnički scores an average of 1.6 goals per game (8 in 5) and has xG_for 1.63, so statistically they can exploit gaps in the home defense. Conversely, Radnički has only 40% BTTS in their last 5 matches and concedes an average of 0.8 goals per game (4 in 5), while Novi scores 1.4 goals per game with xG_for 1.19, which reduces confidence that both teams will definitely score. Additionally, Novi has xG_against 1.36 versus 1.08 for Radnički, suggesting a higher risk that Novi will concede than the other way around. Considering Novi’s 80% BTTS, Radnički’s 1.6 goals scored and Novi’s 2.0 goals conceded, I prefer the 'both teams to score' scenario and estimate 70% for BTTS - Yes and 30% for No Goal.

In the last 5 matches Novi Pazar averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Radnički averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded; that gives an average of 3.4 goals in Novi Pazar’s matches (1.4+2.0) and 2.4 goals in Radnički’s matches (1.6+0.8). xG supports this picture: Novi Pazar has xG_for=1.19 and xG_against=1.36, Radnički has xG_for=1.63 and xG_against=1.08; averaging the home attack with the away defense yields about 1.10 expected goals for Novi Pazar, and averaging the away attack with the home defense about 1.80 for Radnički (sum ~2.90). Additionally, 100% of Novi Pazar’s last 5 matches were Over 2.5 goals and 80% ended with Both Teams to Score, whereas Radnički had Over 2.5 in 60% of matches and BTTS in 40%; these metrics reinforce the signal toward Over 2.5. Therefore I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal; I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at 78% (Under 22%), with expected goals 1.10 for the home team and 1.80 for the away team (total 2.90). Additionally, Over 1.5 is very likely (92%) given the teams’ scoring averages of 1.4 and 1.6, while Over 3.5 is less likely (34%) despite Novi Pazar’s susceptibility to conceding (2.0 on average).

Radnički Kragujevac in the last 5 matches has a record of 1 win and 4 draws (form 'wdddd', i.e. 20% wins and 80% draws), while Novi Pazar in their last five have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (form 'dlwdl', i.e. 20% wins, 40% draws, 40% losses). In the first half the visitors score on average 0.8 goals and concede only 0.2, whereas the hosts score 0.4 and concede 1.0; Radnički led at the break in 40% of matches, Novi Pazar only in 20%. After 90 minutes Radnički have the superior points average (1.4 versus the hosts' 1.0), score 1.6 on average and concede 0.8, while Novi Pazar score 1.4 and concede 2.0, which translates into a high frequency of draws for the visitors (80% of matches). Considering the more frequent draws in the first half (hosts drew at half-time in 40%, visitors in 60%) and the very high percentage of full-time draws for the visitors (80%), the most likely scenario is a draw at the break and a draw at full-time (X/X).