Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo: match statistics
Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Novi Pazar played Železničar Pančevo in SuperLiga (Serbia). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Novi Pazar: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Železničar Pančevo: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Novi Pazar scores 1.26 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Železničar Pančevo scores 1.37 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.67 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Novi Pazar 51%, Železničar Pančevo 43%. Over 2.5: Novi Pazar 46%, Železničar Pančevo 43%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Novi Pazar has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.42. Novi Pazar: 12.9 shots per match, Železničar Pančevo: 11.3.
Match halves
Novi Pazar: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.66. Železničar Pančevo: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Novi Pazar: 76-90+ (11 goals). Železničar Pančevo: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
SuperLiga: 2.67 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Novi Pazar generates more chances and higher xG at home — averaging 13.71 shots, 5.76 on target and xG 1.77 with 1.41 goals per game, while Železničar on the road averages 11 shots, 3.76 on target, xG 1.34 and 1.29 goals per game. The hosts win 47% of home matches, whereas the visitors have only a 29% away win rate, giving Novi Pazar a statistical edge in home form. However, last-five form favors Železničar: Novi Pazar collects 0.8 pts per game over the last 5 and conceded 12 goals (2.4 per game), while Železničar has 1.2 pts per game and conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game). Additionally, the hosts have 0% clean sheets at home (they always score), and the visitors have 29% of away matches without scoring, which increases the likelihood of at least one Novi Pazar goal but also highlights risk from their fragile defense. Considering the higher xG and greater number of shots on target for the hosts (1.77 vs 1.34 xG and 5.76 vs 3.76 on-target shots), I tip Novi Pazar to win, with a probability distribution of 45% home, 30% draw, 25% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The prediction is based on a strong form signal: Novi Pazar had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match (12 conceded), while Železničar had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 and scored an average of 1.2 goals (6 scored). Seasonal data are mixed — Novi Pazar has a season goals average of 1.44 and concedes 0.61 on average (67% clean sheets and only 22% BTTS), indicating traditional defensive stability at home, whereas Železničar scores 1.29 and concedes 1.41 over the season, with a season BTTS rate of 65%. xG confirms goal potential: xG is 1.50 for Novi Pazar and 1.34 for Železničar, and xG against is 1.39 for Novi Pazar and 1.49 for Železničar, meaning both sides create scoring chances. Additionally the league has BTTS at 53% and an average goals of 2.68, and Železničar records over 2.5 in 59% and the over 2.5 + BTTS combination in 53% of matches, which reinforces the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering Novi Pazar’s strong recent trend (80% BTTS) and Železničar’s seasonal and match contributions, I assess BTTS probability at 70% (yes) vs 30% (no) and recommend a 'yes' bet (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG and defensive metrics I expect approximately 1.50 goals from Novi Pazar (xG_for 1.50 vs xG_against_away 1.49) and 1.37 from Železničar (xG_for 1.34 vs xG_against_home 1.39), totaling ≈2.87 goals. The 2.87 total is above the league average of 2.68 and under a Poisson distribution translates to roughly a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~55% for Over 2.5 goals and ~32% for Over 3.5 goals. Seasonal indicators support this: Novi Pazar have 61% of matches Over 1.5, Železničar 71%, and Novi Pazar’s last 5 matches show 80% Over 2.5, increasing the propensity for more goals. Counterweights are the home side’s 67% clean sheets and a low percentage of both-teams-to-score at Novi Pazar (22%), whereas Železničar record 65% BTTS and a seasonal xG_for of 1.34, indicating the visitors are the main source of additional goals. As a result the strongest data-driven signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over on the 1.5 line) due to the combined xG of 2.87 and a high, numerically justified probability of exceeding that threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Novi Pazar at home scores on average 1.44 goals and concedes 0.61, winning 61% of matches; they led at the break in 56% of games (10) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 78% of matches, which indicates strong first halves and a solid defense. Železničar Pančevo away scores 1.29 goals and concedes 1.41, wins 29% of matches, led at the break in only 24% (4) of games and has 24% clean sheets on the road, so they less frequently impose the tempo from the start. Novi Pazar has an xG of 1.5 versus opponents’ xG of 1.49, averages 4.11 shots on target against the visitors’ 3.76 and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of home matches; with shot conversion rates of 13% versus the visitors’ 12% the hosts convert chances into goals more efficiently. Additionally the hosts scored 9 goals in minutes 31–45, while Železničar conceded 5 goals in that interval, which increases the likelihood of Novi Pazar leading at the break and maintaining that lead. On this basis the strongest scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1), therefore this outcome is assigned the highest probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Novi Pazar | Železničar Pančevo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Železničar Pančevo is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Novi Pazar · 1.2 pts / match - Železničar Pančevo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Železničar Pančevo is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Novi Pazar · 1.37 goals / match - Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo is 40% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - Novi Pazar · 1 goals / match - Železničar Pančevo
Novi Pazar scores in 77% of matches (27 of 35 matches), while Železničar Pančevo keeps a clean sheet in 46% (16 of 35 matches).
Železničar Pančevo scores in 77% of matches (27 of 35 matches), while Novi Pazar keeps a clean sheet in 31% (11 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Novi Pazar
Over / Under - Železničar Pančevo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Železničar Pančevo is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - Novi Pazar · 1.6 pts / match - Železničar Pančevo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Novi Pazar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Železničar Pančevo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Novi Pazar
Železničar Pančevo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (SuperLiga).
Teams vs league
| Novi Pazar | Liga | Železničar Pančevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.66 | 2.67 | ▼ 2.37 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 51% | 53% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 49% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 29% | ▲ 46% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▼ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 73% | • 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Novi Pazar 1 - 0 - 1 Železničar Pančevo. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo?
The SuperLiga match finished Novi Pazar 2:2 Železničar Pančevo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Novi Pazar and Železničar Pančevo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Novi Pazar won 1, Železničar Pančevo won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo?
Novi Pazar score 1.26 goals per game on average and Železničar Pančevo 1.37. The SuperLiga average is 2.67 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 51% of Novi Pazar's matches and 43% of Železničar Pančevo's.
What form are Novi Pazar and Železničar Pančevo in?
Over the last 5 games Novi Pazar have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Železničar Pančevo 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.