Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: match statistics

Novorizontino are 4th in the table and have won 15 matches this season, while bottom-placed Ponte Preta have just 3 wins and 25 defeats. At home, the hosts win 56% of their matches and score an average of 1.63 goals, while the visitors have lost 94% of their away games, conceding an average of 2.69 goals per match. The difference in chance quality is reflected in the xG figures: Novorizontino post 2.04 at home compared with their opponents’ 0.96 xG, while Ponte Preta’s away figures are 0.92 and 2.25. The hosts have conceded just 4 goals in their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have conceded 12 and lost 4 of those games. In addition, Ponte Preta have failed to score in 75% of their away matches, which, combined with Novorizontino conceding an average of 0.88 goals at home, strongly points to a home win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Ponte Preta’s poor finishing: the visitors failed to score in 75% of their away matches, averaging just 0.44 goals per game. They have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 0.84, so it is difficult to expect them to regularly exploit even gaps in the hosts’ defence. Novorizontino have recently conceded an average of 0.8 goals per game, although their season average of 1.56 goals conceded at home means the visitors’ chances of scoring cannot be ruled out entirely. The hosts are more likely to find the net: they have averaged 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta conceded an average of 2.4 over the same period. BTTS - Yes landed in 25% of Ponte Preta’s away matches and in none of their last 5 games, making a result in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Novorizontino’s matches and 94% of Ponte Preta’s. The visitors concede an average of 2.69 goals per season and have shipped 12 goals in their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood that the hosts alone will come close to scoring twice. Novorizontino’s attacking potential is reflected in an average xG of 2.23 across their last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta have allowed 2.01 xG over the same period. At the same time, the visitors have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches, so the forecast does not assume a significant contribution from them. The 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than Over 2.5, which has landed in 31% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches.

The strongest scenario is Novorizontino leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until the end of the match. In their last 5 games, the hosts led at half-time twice and were never trailing, while Ponte Preta went into the break behind in 4 of their 5 matches. Over this period, Novorizontino averaged 0.8 goals before half-time, while Ponte Preta conceded 1.4, pointing to an early advantage for the hosts. After the break, the visitors failed to score in any of their last 5 matches, whereas the hosts averaged 0.8 goals in that half, making a Ponte Preta turnaround less likely. The risk is a draw at half-time, which Novorizontino recorded in 3 of their last 5 matches; therefore, a scenario in which the hosts win later in the match also carries significant weight in the forecast.