Ñublense vs Everton: match statistics

Everton head into this fixture in clearly superior form: they have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches, winning 3 times, while Ñublense have earned 6 points and suffered 3 defeats. During this period, the visitors scored 11 goals and conceded just 4, whereas the hosts netted 5 and conceded 7. Away from home, Everton average 1.80 goals per match, register 5.30 shots on target and convert 13% of their attempts, compared with Ñublense’s 1.27 goals, 4.09 shots on target and 8% conversion rate at home. Although the hosts do create slightly better-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.62 versus 1.52 for their opponents, Everton are more efficient in turning chances into goals and boast the stronger away record: a 50% win rate and a +8 goal difference. The visitors’ away defence concedes just 1.00 goal per game on average, so their current attacking efficiency and defensive stability give them a slight but clear edge.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is driven primarily by current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of games. Everton scored 11 goals during this period, averaging 2.2 per match, with an xG of 1.97, while Ñublense conceded an average of 1.4 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.40. The hosts have averaged just 1.08 goals scored per game this season and failed to score in 42% of their matches, but their average xG of 1.63 is higher than Everton’s xG conceded figure of 1.49. Everton kept a clean sheet in only 30% of matches, so despite Ñublense’s strong recent defensive record of just 0.8 goals conceded on average, there are solid grounds to expect the hosts to score. Seasonal BTTS figures of 50% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors reduce confidence in the pick, but the attacking potential of both sides and their recent results give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The projection of 2.62 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of three goals, but without strong indications that the 3.5 line will be exceeded. Across the entire season, 75% of Ñublense’s matches and 70% of Everton’s matches finished with under 3.5 goals, while over 3.5 goals occurred in only 25% and 30% of cases, respectively. Everton have been efficient recently, averaging 2.2 goals across their last five matches, whereas Ñublense scored only 1.0 goal per game during this period. Both teams create chances worth more than 1.4 xG, but Everton concede just 1.0 goal per game on average this season and keep a clean sheet in 30% of matches. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the data combines a moderate goals projection with a clearly high historical frequency of matches ending with a maximum of three goals.

Everton were leading at half-time in 50% of their matches this season, compared with just 17% for Ñublense, while the away side’s rate has risen to 60% over their last five games. The visitors average 1.10 goals before the break, whereas the hosts concede 0.75 during this phase, and their recent first-half attacking output stands at only 0.60 goals. Everton’s advantage continues after the interval: they have not lost a single second half in their last five matches, scoring an average of 0.60 goals and conceding none. Across the season, Everton win 50% of their matches while averaging 1.80 goals scored, whereas Ñublense lose 42% of their games and score only 1.08 goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is for the visitors to lead at the break and secure the final victory: X/2.