Nuova Monterosi vs Gubbio: match statistics

Gubbio have the stronger record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Nuova Monterosi have managed 4 points. The visitors conceded just 4 goals during this period, 3 fewer than the hosts, pointing to a significantly more stable defence. Nuova Monterosi have scored 7 goals compared with Gubbio’s 5, but they suffered 3 defeats in five matches and have an identical goals-for and goals-against record. Gubbio have won two of their last three matches, whereas the hosts lost three of their previous four fixtures before securing their most recent victory. With limited season data available, the visitors’ superior points form and tighter defence give them a slight edge, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Nuova Monterosi recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, compared with 40% for Gubbio. The hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, but also conceded 1.4, while Gubbio scored 1.0 goal per match. Both teams’ defences allowed opponents to create quality chances: the average xG against them was 1.72 for Nuova Monterosi and 1.67 for Gubbio. Although Gubbio conceded just 0.8 goals per game in their last five appearances, the visitors’ weaker attacking xG of 0.75 reduces confidence in the pick, but the hosts’ defensive vulnerability gives them a realistic chance of scoring.

Full-season data is unavailable, so the assessment is based primarily on the last 5 matches played by both teams. During this period, Nuova Monterosi averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Gubbio scored 1.0 goal and conceded just 0.8 per match. The xG generated was limited, particularly for the visitors (0.75 compared with 1.06 for the hosts), even though both defenses allowed opponents chances worth 1.67 and 1.72 xG, respectively. Over 2.5 goals was recorded in only 40% of the last matches for each team, which does not support the scenario of an open, high-scoring game producing four goals. The projected total of 2.15 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals, as a result with at least 4 goals would require a significant increase on both teams’ recent scoring rates.

Gubbio have the better record over their last five matches, averaging 1.4 points per game compared with Nuova Monterosi’s 0.8, while conceding just 0.8 goals per match versus the hosts’ 1.4. The visitors have been particularly strong starters, leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, compared with just 20% for the hosts. Gubbio’s defence conceded an average of only 0.2 goals before half-time and kept a clean sheet at the break in 80% of their matches, significantly reducing Monterosi’s chances of completing a turnaround. After the interval, the visitors continue to concede just 0.6 goals on average, while Nuova Monterosi have lost 60% of their recent matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is Gubbio leading at half-time and securing the win at full-time: 1/1.