Nuova Monterosi vs Ternana: match statistics

The favorite is Ternana: they sit 6th in the table versus Nuova Monterosi’s 11th and have 37 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 27, a +10 goal advantage. Away Ternana scores on average 1.07 goals with a conversion rate of 12% and xG 1.23, while Monterosi at home only posts 0.56 goals with a 6% conversion despite a higher xG of 1.35 — the hosts generate chances but finish them poorly (56% of home matches without a goal). Defenses are comparable by basic results: Monterosi concedes 0.88 goals at home on average, Ternana 0.87 away, but in the last 5 matches Monterosi scored 4 and conceded 5, and Ternana scored 5 and conceded 8, which reduces the favorite’s edge. Additionally Monterosi has 44% clean sheets at home versus Ternana’s 33% away, which sustains a realistic chance of a low-scoring draw, yet Ternana’s superior finishing and goal differential lead me to predict their victory.

I back BTTS - Yes with a 64% vs 36% probability because attacking signals and recent defensive issues favor goals from both sides. Nuova Monterosi generates a high offensive xG of 1.94 and averages 14.63 shots and 4.88 on target per match, while Ternana concedes an average xG of 1.23 and allows opponents 9.27 shots with 2.6 on target; this indicates the home side should create at least one clear chance. Ternana has conceded 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 per match) versus Monterosi’s 5 conceded (1.0 per match), which increases the likelihood of the hosts scoring. Conversely, Ternana scores an average of 1.07 goals per match this season, has 37 goals scored and a higher conversion rate of 12% versus Monterosi’s 9%, and 60% of their last 5 matches featured BTTS, so a response is a realistic possibility. Overall, the xG advantage of 1.94, 4.88 on-target shots for the home side and Ternana’s 1.6 goals conceded in the last 5 matches produce a stronger signal for both teams to score, so I pick Yes.

The xG-based model (averaging the opponent’s attack and defence) yields expected xG: home (1.94 + 1.23)/2 ≈ 1.59, away (1.23 + 1.18)/2 ≈ 1.21, totaling approximately 2.80 goals. With a mean of 2.80 the Poisson distribution suggests probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 77%, Over 2.5 ≈ 53% and Over 3.5 ≈ 31% (complementary Under: 23%/47%/69%). Additionally, Nuova Monterosi averages 14.63 shots and 4.88 on target per match versus Ternana’s 9.27 and 2.6, and the hosts have 88% of matches with more than 1.5 goals this season, which reinforces the expectation of at least two goals. A counter-signal against an aggressive Over 2.5 is the historical Over 2.5 rates of only 38% for Monterosi and 33% for Ternana and the relatively low shooting conversion for the hosts (9% conversion), so Over 2.5 is only moderately likely. Based on this, the strongest and most value-driven pick is Over 1.5, where the edge (≈77% vs 23%) is the clearest signal from the available data.

Statistical analysis suggests a draw at half-time as the most likely scenario: the home side have been level at the break in 44% of their matches, while Ternana were level at half-time in 67% of their away games. In the last 5 matches both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases, reinforcing the signal for an X at Half-Time. After the break, however, Nuova Monterosi have the advantage — their xG is 1.94 versus Ternana’s 1.23, they average 4.88 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 2.6 and have a 50% win rate this season versus Ternana’s 33%, indicating greater winning potential in the second half. The hosts score an average of 0.63 goals by half-time versus 0.4 for the visitors and 1.31 goals per match versus the opponents’ 1.07, therefore the strongest pick is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).