Nyíregyháza Spartacus vs Újpest: match statistics

Nyíregyháza Spartacus has demonstrated more stability over the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.6 points per game, whereas Újpest over the same period has 2 wins and 3 losses with an average of 1.2 points per game. The visitors’ attack is slightly more productive numerically — Újpest scored 11 goals in five matches versus Nyíregyháza’s 9 — but both teams conceded 11 goals in that span (an average of 2.2 goals conceded per game). League position favors the home side (6th vs 12th), and the hosts’ form line (wlwdd) indicates fewer defeats (1 vs 3). Given the higher points average (1.6 vs 1.2) and greater result stability with similar defensive vulnerability, I forecast a narrow edge for Nyíregyháza. I therefore expect a home win, while also anticipating goals at both ends given each team’s 11 goals conceded in the last five matches.

Nyíregyháza had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Újpest only in 40%, indicating a clear offensive signal from the home side. Both teams have been scoring and conceding frequently in their last five games: Nyíregyháza 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average, Újpest 2.2 scored and 2.2 conceded on average. xG analysis confirms this — hosts have xG 2.05 versus 1.51 for Újpest, and expected goals against are 1.29 and 1.83 respectively, so both sides create and allow chances. In absolute numbers Nyíregyháza scored 9 and conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches, and Újpest scored 11 and conceded 11, reflecting strong goal dynamics from both teams. Considering 80% vs 40% BTTS, average goals 1.8–2.2 and high average concessions 2.2, I assess a 70% probability for BTTS (Yes) and 30% for No, so the recommended pick is Yes.

Seasonal statistics are largely incomplete (many values 0), so I base the analysis on data from the last 5 matches. In those games Nyíregyháza scored on average 1.8 goals and had xG 2.05 with an average of 2.2 conceded, while Újpest averaged 2.2 goals with xG 1.51 and 2.2 conceded. Combined expected xG is 3.56 (2.05+1.51), and the total goals in the last 5 matches of both teams is 20 (9+11), which corresponds to an average of 4.0 goals per match. Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of Nyíregyháza’s matches and 80% of Újpest’s, and Nyíregyháza had BTTS in 80% of those games, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this I estimate ~87% chance for over 1.5, ~69% for over 2.5 and ~48% for over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is an over on the 1.5 line.

The strongest signal indicates a home lead at the break and a home win at full-time (1/1). The hosts led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), scoring an average of 0.6 goals by the break compared to 0.8 for the visitors, while the visitors concede an average of 1.0 goal by half-time. Additionally, the hosts earn 1.6 points per home match over the last 5 fixtures versus 1.2 points per match for the visitors and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 4 of 5 matches (80%), which increases the probability of maintaining the lead. The visitors, however, are dangerous after the break — they score an average of 1.4 second-half goals versus 1.2 for the hosts and account for 60% of winning second-half signals, so I assigned a moderate probability of a visitor turnaround. As a result, 1/1 received the highest probability at 39%, with moderate shares for 1/X at 11% and X/X at 10%, and 2/2 at 14% as the most likely comeback variant.