Oakland Roots vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics

Both teams come into this match in very similar form: over their last five games, each has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, averaging 1.6 points per game. Oakland hold a slight edge in chance creation at home, where they average 57% possession, 11.31 shots and an xG of 1.36, compared with Phoenix’s 47% possession, 9.17 shots and 1.08 xG away from home. However, the hosts have not converted this advantage efficiently enough, scoring an average of 1.08 goals at home and failing to score in 31% of matches. The two defences are closely matched, with Oakland conceding 1.38 goals per home game and Phoenix 1.42 away, while their opponents’ xG figures are 1.32 and 1.37, respectively. The high draw rates—38% for Oakland at home and 42% for Phoenix away—point to a draw as the most likely outcome.

The signal for both sides to score is clear: Oakland has recorded BTTS in 69% of its matches this season, while Phoenix has done so in 58%, compared with the league average of 54%. Phoenix’s current run is particularly strong, with BTTS landing in 100% of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Oakland creates significantly more danger at home, averaging 15.08 shots and 5.85 shots on target, with an xG of 1.75, while Phoenix’s defense allows an average of 1.42 goals and 1.37 xG. The visitors have a weaker attack over the course of the season, averaging 1.00 goal and 2.42 shots on target, but Oakland concedes an average of 1.38 goals, and its xG against has risen to 1.50 across the last five matches. The BTTS - Yes scenario is therefore more likely, although the risk comes from Phoenix failing to score in 25% of their matches this season.

Oakland averages 1.77 goals per match and creates chances worth 1.75 xG, while Phoenix concedes an average of 1.42 goals and allows opponents 1.37 xG. The hosts also register significantly more shots on target, 5.85 compared with Phoenix’s 2.42, which strengthens their potential to score. At least 2 goals were scored in 92% of Oakland’s matches and 83% of Phoenix’s games, so Over 1.5 goals is strongly supported by the season data. Phoenix’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 total goals, while both teams conceded 1.2 and 1.6 goals per match respectively during this period. The Over 2.5 line is more finely balanced, as Oakland cleared it in only 20% of their last five appearances, while Under 3.5 remains a realistic option given Phoenix’s low share of four-goal games, at 17%.

Oakland Roots have a clear advantage over the course of the season: they average 1.77 goals per match compared with Phoenix Rising’s 1.00, while also recording an xG of 1.75 versus the opponents’ 1.08. The hosts average 5.85 shots on target, whereas Phoenix manage only 2.42, and Oakland’s points tally stands at 1.69 per match compared with just 0.92 for the visitors. Oakland were leading at the break in 38% of their matches, while Phoenix took the lead in only 8% and went into half-time behind in as many as 33% of cases. It is also significant that the visitors concede an average of 0.83 goals before half-time, while the hosts score 0.77, supporting the scenario of a home-team advantage from the first half. Although both teams have collected 1.6 points per match across their last five games, the long-term quality gap and home advantage most strongly support the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.