Odd vs Ranheim: match statistics

I back the home win: Odd average 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded at home, with 57% possession and 17 shots per match. In the last 5 fixtures Odd scored 8 goals and won 3, averaging 1.8 points per game in that period, while Ranheim have 12 goals in five matches but only 2 wins (1.4 points per game). Ranheim away score 2.33 goals but concede 3.33 per match, have not kept a single clean sheet on the road and record 67% away defeats, indicating serious defensive vulnerabilities. Odd have 0% home matches without scoring and 50% clean sheets, and superior quality-of-chance metrics: 1.91 xG at home and on average 6.25 shots on target versus 1.36 xG and 5.0 shots on target for Ranheim away. Given the possession advantage (57% vs 48%), shots (17 vs 11.33) and home defensive stability, I assign a 60% probability to an Odd win, 20% to a draw and 20% to a Ranheim win.

The statistics strongly support BTTS - Yes: Odd has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, Ranheim 67%, and the league average is 56%, indicating an elevated likelihood of both teams scoring. In terms of goals scored, Odd averages 3.25 goals in home matches while Ranheim averages 2.33 goals away; concurrently Ranheim concedes 3.33 goals per match and Odd concedes 1.0, so both home and away sides regularly participate in goal exchanges. xG and shot analysis confirm this: Odd has xG_for 2.02 and averages 17.75 shots (8 on target), Ranheim has xG_for 1.36 with 11.33 shots (5 on target), and Ranheim has xG_against 2.25, which demonstrates real scoring opportunities for both sides. In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, and Ranheim has 0% away clean sheets while Odd keeps a clean sheet in only 25% of home games. Taking into account 75% vs 67% BTTS, Ranheim’s 0% away clean sheets, high xG values and goal averages of 3.25 and 2.33, I assess the probability of BTTS at 78% vs 22% and select 'BTTS - Yes' as the strongest signal.

I forecast Over 1.5 goals because expected xG are 2.14 for Odd and 1.30 for Ranheim (total 3.44), indicating significant scoring potential. Seasonal goal output supports this: Odd average 3.25 goals per match, Ranheim 2.33; in the last 5 matches Odd scored 8 goals (1.6 avg), Ranheim 12 goals (2.4 avg). The share of matches above 1.5 goals is 100% for both teams, and the percentage of games with both teams scoring is 75% (Odd) and 67% (Ranheim); the league averages 3.56 goals per match and 71% of matches over 2.5. A Poisson model with total lambda=3.44 gives approximately 86% probability for Over 1.5, ~67% for Over 2.5 and ~45% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Odd averages 17.75 shots (8 on target), Ranheim 11.33 (5 on target) with conversion rates 18% and 21%, which supports expectation of at least two goals.

I assess 1/1 (home team leading at half-time and winning) as the most likely scenario and assign it a 36% probability. Odd have a clear offensive edge: the home side’s average xG is 2.02 versus Ranheim’s 1.36, with an average of 17.75 shots per game compared to 11.33 and 8 shots on target versus 5, indicating more created chances. By half-time Odd average 1.25 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while the visitors average 1.0 scored and 0.67 conceded at the break; the hosts led at half-time in 50% of their matches this season and in 3 of the last 5 meetings (60%), which supports the HT advantage. Over the full season Odd win 75% of home matches versus Ranheim’s 33% win rate and score an average of 3.25 goals per game compared to the visitors’ 2.33, so maintaining the lead to full-time appears most likely.