Odd vs Raufoss: match statistics

Odd is the clear favorite in this matchup: they are unbeaten at home (0 losses), with 3 wins and 1 draw in home fixtures and an average of 3.0 goals per home game (11 goals this season), while Raufoss averages 1.0 goal away (3 away goals this season). Offensively the hosts have a large advantage — Odd averages 14.5 shots and 6.0 on target per home match versus Raufoss’s 7.0 shots and 1.0 on target away; conversion rate is 21% versus 14%, and the hosts’ xG is 1.77 compared to the visitors’ 0.79. Raufoss have serious defensive issues: they concede 5.0 goals on average away and have an xGAgainst of 2.14, whereas Odd concede 1.0 goal at home on average with an xGAgainst of 1.53; the hosts also keep clean sheets in 50% of home games, while the visitors have 0% clean sheets on the road. In the last 5 matches Odd average 2.0 points per game and have won 3 of 5, while Raufoss average 0.4 points per game and have not won any of the last 5 (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Considering the superiority in shots, quality of chances (xG) and the visitors’ clear defensive frailties, I predict an Odd victory.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 80% in their last 5 matches each, versus a league BTTS average of 60%, which strongly supports a Goal/Goal scenario. In xG terms Odd records 1.29 xG per match while Raufoss has xG against of 2.14, so Odd should generate scoring chances; Raufoss posts 0.79 xG with xG against Odd 1.23, indicating weaker offensive output, but Odd concedes on average 2.0 goals this season and 1.8 in the last 5, making it easier for the opponent to score. Shot stats show Odd’s advantage (10.5 shots and 3.5 on target) versus Raufoss (7.0 and 1.0), however Raufoss has a higher conversion rate (14% vs 10%), so they can score from limited opportunities. In the last 5 matches Odd scored 13 goals (2.6 avg) and conceded 9, while Raufoss scored 4 (0.8 avg) and conceded 11 (2.2 avg), which together point to a high probability of goals from both sides. Based on this I rate BTTS - Yes as more likely (88%) and give the Yes scenario priority over No (12%).

I estimate 1.72 goals for Odd and 1.01 for Raufoss (2.73 total), calculated as the average of home attack xG (1.29) and away defensive susceptibility (2.14) and vice versa (0.79 and 1.23). Both teams have 100% of season matches over 1.5 goals, and the league averages 3.6 goals per match, which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5. Signals for the 2.5 line are mixed: Odd has 50% season Over 2.5, Raufoss 100%, and in the last 5 matches respectively 100% and 40%, so I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at about 72%. The 3.5 line is less likely, since the expected 2.73 goals is below 3.5, although the sum of the teams’ last 5-match averages is 3.4 — hence roughly a 34% chance of 4+ goals. The best bet from the data is Over 1.5 (back Over, line 1.5), especially given Odd averages 10.5 shots and 3.5 shots on target per game versus 7.0 and 1.0 for Raufoss.

Odd have averaged 2.6 goals and a 60% win rate in the last 5 matches, whereas Raufoss have averaged 0.4 points per game and a 0% win rate over the same period. xG favors the hosts: xG_for 1.29 versus 0.79 for the visitors, and Raufoss concede an average xG_against of 2.14 compared to 1.23 for Odd; additionally Odd register 3.5 shots on target versus 1.0 for Raufoss. At half-time the data also favors Odd — an average of 1.0 goal at the break versus 0.0 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches Odd have held a lead at the break in 40% of games (Raufoss 0%). Seasonally both teams have a 100% BTTS rate, but Raufoss concede an average of 5.0 goals per game versus 2.0 for Odd, which increases the likelihood that the hosts will maintain a lead. Consequently I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (36%), because the xG advantage (1.29 vs 0.79), higher number of shots on target (3.5 vs 1.0) and Odd’s better form (2.6 goals in the last 5) point to a lead at the break and a home win.