OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica: match statistics

OFK Beograd holds a slight edge in this fixture due to superior recent form: 9 goals, 2 wins and an average of 1.8 points per game in the last five matches, compared to Radnik’s 7 goals, 1 win and 1.2 points per game. At home OFK averages 9.86 shots per match with 3 on target and a 12% conversion rate, yielding 1.14 goals per game; Radnik away posts 10.43 shots, 3.43 on target and 1.00 goal per game — more attempts but lower efficiency (10% vs 12%). The hosts also register higher ball control (53% possession vs 44% for the visitors), a better clean sheet rate (36% vs 21%) and less frequent shutouts without scoring (43% FTS vs 50% for Radnik), all favoring home advantage. Conversely, Radnik have a stronger season goal differential (37 scored, 35 conceded vs OFK’s 39-39) and a lower xG against on the road (xG against 1.60 vs 1.81 in OFK matches), indicating a more compact defensive profile. Considering the hosts’ form advantage (1.8 vs 1.2 points over the last 5), superior control and higher efficiency, I forecast an OFK win; estimated probabilities: 52% home, 26% draw, 22% away.

I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely: both teams have seen BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (home 80%, away 80%), with season rates of 60% for OFK and 43% for Radnik; league average BTTS is 53%. OFK has the stronger attack: 1.53 goals per game vs Radnik's 1.00, home xG 1.79 vs away xG 1.25, and more shots 14.6 vs 10.43 and more shots on target 4.8 vs 3.43, increasing OFK's scoring probability. Radnik concedes more often — season 1.36 goals conceded per game and xG against 1.60 (OFK concedes 1.07 and xG against 1.20), and away clean sheets only 21% vs home 40%, which favors BTTS. Counterpoint: Radnik failed to score in 50% of season matches and has a season scoring average of only 1.00, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering the strong recent BTTS form (80% vs 80%), OFK's offensive advantage (xG 1.79) and Radnik's weaker defense (xG against 1.60), I estimate BTTS at 65% vs 35% and tip 'yes'.

Averaging the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG yields for OFK (1.79 + 1.60)/2 = 1.70 and for Radnik (1.25 + 1.20)/2 = 1.23, totaling 2.93 expected goals. Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 73% for OFK and 71% for Radnik (72% average), and in the last 5 matches OFK scores 1.8 goals on average, Radnik 1.4 — a combined 3.2 goals, which confirms a strong trend for Over 1.5 goals. OFK averages 4.8 shots on target per match, Radnik 3.43, with conversion rates of 11% and 10%, and Both Teams To Score percentages of 60% (OFK) and 43% (Radnik), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Seasonal Over 2.5 are 53% (OFK) and 29% (Radnik), but the last 5 fixtures show 80% and 60% respectively, so I rate Over 2.5 at 63% as a moderately strong signal. The safest line to play is Over 1.5 (86% vs 14%), because the projected 2.93 goals, high seasonal Over 1.5 rates of 73%/71% and an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 matches provide the largest safety margin.

OFK Beograd has a seasonal average of 1.53 goals scored per match with an xG of 1.79, while Radnik Surdulica averages 1.00 goal and an xG of 1.25, indicating a clear offensive advantage for the home side. In first halves OFK scores on average 0.87 goals versus Radnik’s 0.57, and in the last 5 matches the hosts led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 4 of 5 (80%). OFK registers an average of 4.8 shots on target per match compared to Radnik’s 3.43, while the visitors have a higher xG against (1.6 versus 1.2 for the home team), suggesting Radnik concedes scoring opportunities more often. Considering the season-long home win share of 47% versus 21% for the away side and OFK’s dominance in first-half metrics, the most likely Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is HT/FT 1/1 — I assess its probability at roughly 38%, with X/1 ≈18% and 1/X ≈5%.