OFK Beograd vs Zemun: match statistics

OFK Beograd have a clear advantage over Zemun, who have failed to win any of their five matches this season and have scored just 2 goals while conceding 11. The hosts are unbeaten at home, although both of their home games so far have ended in draws, and their average xG stands at 1.57 compared with just 0.78 for the visitors away from home. Zemun are yet to score away from home, average only 1 shot on target per match and concede as many as 3.5 goals per game. In addition, the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 2.65, while OFK Beograd produce 13 shots and 4.5 shots on target at home. Although the hosts are not particularly clinical and average 1 goal at home, Zemun’s poor form and extremely limited attacking potential clearly point to a home win.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by Zemun’s very poor scoring efficiency: the visitors have yet to score, averaging 0 goals per match, and have netted just 0.4 goals across their last five fixtures. Their season BTTS rate stands at 0%, while it is only 20% over their last five matches, with Zemun failing to score in 100% of their appearances to date. OFK Beograd also has limited attacking output, averaging 0.67 goals, although their xG of 1.39 and 2.67 shots on target per match give the hosts a clearly greater chance of scoring at least once. Zemun concede an average of 3.5 goals and allow opponents an xG of 2.65, making a home win with a clean sheet the most likely scenario. The low league BTTS rate of 35% further strengthens the forecast that at least one team will fail to score.

Zemun concede an average of as many as 3.50 goals away from home, while their average xG against stands at 2.65, giving OFK Beograd the conditions to score around 1.75 goals. However, the visitors are very limited offensively: they have failed to score in their away matches so far, average just 1.00 shot on target, and have an xG of 0.78. In their last five matches, both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of games, although Zemun scored only 0.40 goals per match during this period. At the same time, neither of the analysed profiles included a five-goal game, while the hosts recorded fewer than four goals in 67% of matches. The projected total of 2.35 goals primarily points towards the Under 3.5 goals option, with a high safety margin against a one-sided home-win scenario.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and an OFK Beograd win after 90 minutes: the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Zemun were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of them. Zemun have failed to score before the break in each of their last five matches, whereas OFK Beograd have averaged 0.6 goals in this phase. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as Zemun concede an average of 2.0 goals in second halves away from home and have lost every second half played so far. OFK Beograd possess clearly greater attacking potential, as reflected by an xG of 1.39 compared with the opponent’s 0.78, as well as an average of 12.33 shots per match versus Zemun’s 6.0. The 1/1 scenario remains a realistic alternative, but OFK’s failure to lead at half-time in their matches at home increases the significance of the X/1 option.