OFK Pirin vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II appear as the favorites: in the last 5 matches they scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and average 1.6 points per game, while OFK Pirin scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and average 0.8 points per game. The home side conceded as many as 11 goals in their last 5 fixtures (2.2 per match), whereas CSKA conceded 5 goals (1.0 per match) in the same period. Additionally, CSKA averages 16 shots and 3 on target per away match and records an away xG of 1.75, while the available home data shows zeros for shots and possession, suggesting no registered offensive output for the hosts. The table difference also favors the visitors (CSKA 8th vs OFK Pirin 18th), and the goal balance over the last 5 matches is 8–5 in CSKA’s favor. Considering the visitors’ 1.6 average points per game versus the hosts’ 0.8 and OFK’s significantly weaker defense (2.2 goals conceded per match), I give a higher probability to a CSKA win, with a draw remaining possible given both teams’ inconsistent form.

I back BTTS - Yes because CSKA Sofia II has a season BTTS rate of 100% and BTTS occurred in 60% of their last 5 matches (3 of 5), indicating the away side regularly both scores and concedes. OFK Pirin scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches (1.0 per game) and conceded 11 (2.2 per game), while season-to-date the home side have 1 scored and 5 conceded, pointing to a weak defense. CSKA generates around 1.75 xG on the season and 1.85 xG in the last 5, averaging 16 shots and 3 on target per match, whereas the hosts have about 1.2 xG in their last 5, so the visitors hold a clear attacking edge. Conversely CSKA also concedes goals (1.0 on average in the last 5 and 1.7 xG against), which increases the likelihood the hosts will find the net. Additionally the league has a BTTS rate of 67% and an average of 3.0 goals per match, therefore I rate the "Yes" outcome as the stronger signal (approximate probability 75% vs 25%).

I expect a total of 2.85 goals (OFK Pirin 1.10, CSKA Sofia II 1.75), which is above the 2.5 threshold and well above 1.5. In their last 5 matches OFK Pirin averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, while CSKA II averaged 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, giving an average of 2.6 goals per game; the combined xG from the last 5 is 3.05 (1.2+1.85), supporting a multi-goal game scenario. CSKA II has 100% of matches this season over 1.5 goals, and the league averages 3.0 goals per match, so the 1.5 line is the strongest signal (I rate Over 1.5 at 85%). The 2.5 line also has an edge (I rate Over 2.5 at 68%) due to a 60% share of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 fixtures of both teams and an expected combined goals ~2.85. Over 3.5 is less likely (~28%) because projected combined xG/goals (~2.85) are below 3.5 and OFK Pirin conceded on average 2.2 goals in their last five, indicating a moderate scoring pace rather than a very high-scoring outcome.

The visitors are in better form: in their last 5 matches they have a 40% win rate and average 1.6 points per match versus the hosts' 20% win rate and 0.8 points (40.0 and 1.6 vs 20.0 and 0.8). At half-time draws prevail in recent appearances – both teams record 40% draws at the break, and the average goals by half-time are 1.0 for the visitors versus 0.4 for the hosts (1.0 vs 0.4). Second-half statistics show the league has 89% of matches with at least one goal after the break, and the visitors average 2.0 goals in the second half, which favors a turnaround after half-time (89.0% and 2.0). Additionally, the visitors’ xG is 1.75 versus 0.0 for the hosts and the visitors attempt an average of 16 shots per match versus 0 for the hosts (1.75 vs 0.0 and 16.0 vs 0.0), therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a visitors’ win at full-time (X/2).