OFK Pirin vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

Hebar 1918 holds an advantage in form and chance conversion, so I back them to win: the visitors scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches and recorded 3 wins in that span, averaging 2 points per match, while OFK Pirin has just 1 goal in the last 5 and averages 1 point per match. The home side generates more shots at home (11.31 shots and 7.46 on target per match) and a higher xG (1.54 at home), but poor finishing (shot conversion 7%) yields only 0.77 goals per match, indicating clear underperformance in chance exploitation. The visitors produce fewer shots away (8.42 with 5.25 on target) and a lower xG (1.11), but a 17% conversion rate and 1.42 goals per match demonstrate greater efficiency in finishing; additionally, Hebar fail to score in only 17% of away fixtures versus 38% of such matches for the hosts. Defensively OFK Pirin perform better at home — conceding 0.77 goals per match and keeping clean sheets in 46% of home games — whereas Hebar concede 1.25 goals away and have 33% clean sheets, which balances the matchup. Considering Hebar’s superior form and efficiency (2 points per match and 7 goals in the last 5) and the hosts’ poor finishing despite an xG of 1.54, I assign a higher probability to the visitors’ victory, though a draw is also plausible.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 54% (OFK Pirin) and 58% (Hebar), averaging 56%, clearly above the league average of 44%. OFK Pirin concedes 2.00 goals per match on average, while Hebar concedes 1.25; both sides score 1.38 and 1.42 goals per match respectively, so statistically there is a strong chance of goals from both teams. xG and shot data support this: OFK has xG 1.63, 11.62 shots and 5.54 on target, Hebar xG 1.11, 8.42 shots and 5.25 on target, with Hebar showing higher conversion 17% vs OFK 12%. In the short term OFK is less effective offensively — in the last 5 matches they average 0.2 goals and have 0% BTTS, while Hebar in their last 5 average 1.4 goals and 40% BTTS, which slightly reduces confidence in the pick. Considering the season 54%/58%, OFK’s high average goals conceded (2.0) and Hebar’s efficiency, I pick BTTS = Yes with probability 65% vs 35% for No.

xG analysis: OFK Pirin has xG_for 1.63 while Hebar concedes xG 1.13 — this yields ~1.38 expected goals for the home side; Hebar has xG_for 1.11 versus xG_against_home 1.35, translating to ~1.23 for the away side, total xG = 2.61. Seasonal metrics confirm a tendency for goals: OFK Pirin have 92% of home matches with over 1.5 goals, Hebar 83% away, and both teams register 54% and 58% of matches respectively where both teams score; the hosts concede on average 2.0 goals per match and keep only 15% clean sheets. A Poisson model with λ=2.61 gives ~73% chance of at least 2 goals and ~48% chance of at least 3 goals; combining this with seasonal averages (mean 87.5% for over1.5 and 56% for over2.5) I set probabilities at approx. 80% for over 1.5, 52% for over 2.5 and 29% for over 3.5. The strongest betting signal is over 1.5 (80%) — total xG 2.61, Hebar’s high shot conversion 17% with an average of 8.42 shots and OFK Pirin’s 11.62 shots, plus the hosts’ low clean sheet rate of 15% indicate a high probability of at least two goals.

Hebar 1918 are in better form and I forecast a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2). In the last five matches Hebar have won 60% of games versus 20% for OFK Pirin, and in those five matches the visitors scored 7 goals before the break compared to 2 for the hosts. OFK Pirin generate higher home xG (1.63 vs 1.11) and average 0.92 goals by half-time, but they concede as many as 2.0 goals per game on the season, which weakens the home advantage. After the break the statistics favour Hebar — they win the second half in 50% of matches and collect an average of 1.75 points in second halves, while the hosts win the second half in only 17% of cases. Additionally the hosts have had 92% of home matches this season with at least one goal by half-time, but poor HT form in the last five games (only 2 goals) and Hebar’s advantage after the break support the X/2 scenario.