OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

OFK Pirin appears to be the favorite — at home they average 0.83 goals per match with an average xG of 1.62, while Ludogorets II score only 0.50 goals away with xG 1.09. Defensively the hosts also look better: OFK Pirin concedes 0.83 goals at home, while the visitors allow 1.58 goals on the road. The home advantage is further supported by shot and accuracy metrics: OFK Pirin averages 11.83 shots and around 8 on target at home versus 8.25 shots and 4.08 on target for Ludogorets II away. Additionally, the hosts have 42% of home matches with a clean sheet and win 33% of home games, whereas the visitors win only 17% of away matches and have not won in their last 5 games (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Considering recent form (OFK Pirin 1.0 points per game in the last 5 vs 0.6 for the visitors) and the advantage in xG and shots on target, I predict a home win.

OFK Pirin creates more offensive opportunities: averaging 1.77 goals, xG 1.81, 14.85 shots and 7.85 shots on target per match, while Ludogorets II has only 0.50 goals, xG 1.09, 8.25 shots and 4.08 on target. The visitors failed to score in 58% of their matches this season and have a shot conversion rate of 6%, which significantly reduces their scoring probability despite generating xG. The hosts have a high seasonal BTTS share at 77% and only 8% clean sheets, and 62% of their matches go over 2.5 goals, which theoretically favors BTTS - Yes. However, the last 5 matches show the hosts’ BTTS rate dropping to 40%, and the dominant signal is Ludogorets II’s low goals average (0.50) and 58% no-goal matches; therefore I assign a higher probability to BTTS - No (65% vs 35%).

Based on xG, expected goals are approximately 1.68 for OFK Pirin (home xG 1.81 vs conceded xG by Ludogorets II 1.54 → (1.81+1.54)/2=1.68) and about 1.20 for Ludogorets II (away xG 1.09 vs conceded xG by hosts 1.30 → (1.09+1.30)/2=1.20), totaling 2.88. A Poisson model with λ=2.88 yields probability of Over 1.5 ≈78% (P(0-1)≈21.8%), Over 2.5 ≈55% and Over 3.5 ≈33%. Seasonal support: OFK Pirin scores 1.77 goals on average at home and has 85% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 62% with over 2.5, while Ludogorets II averages 0.5 goals away with 58% of matches over 1.5 and 33% over 2.5, which favors the combined total being above 1.5. Hosts average 7.85 shots on target at home versus 4.08 shots on target for the visitors, but note a cooling in form: in the last 5 matches OFK scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and Ludogorets II 4 goals (0.8 avg), which reduces confidence for higher lines. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side Over) as the strongest signal (78%), while Over 2.5 is a moderate option (55%) and Over 3.5 is too risky (33%).

OFK Pirin has a clear offensive advantage: they average 1.77 goals per match versus 0.50 for Ludogorets II, the home xG is 1.81 compared to 1.09 for the visitors, and shots on target average 7.85 vs 4.08. Despite this, a draw at the break is more likely — the hosts were level at half-time in 54% of matches, while leading at the break occurred in only 15%; in the last five games OFK Pirin led at half-time in 40% of fixtures, indicating short-term improvement. After the break the hosts perform better: they score on average 0.92 goals after half-time versus 0.33 for the visitors and win the second half in 46% of cases, which favors turning a draw at the break into a home victory. Considering OFK Pirin win 38% of matches versus 17% for Ludogorets II, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this scenario a 28% probability.