Ogre United vs Rīgas FS: match statistics
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ogre United played Rīgas FS in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 3:4.
Current form
Ogre United: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Rīgas FS: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ogre United scores 0.56 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Rīgas FS scores 1.78 and concedes 0.67. League average: 2.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ogre United 56%, Rīgas FS 33%. Over 2.5: Ogre United 33%, Rīgas FS 33%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Rīgas FS has higher xG: 1.93 vs 0.97. Ogre United: 8.9 shots per match, Rīgas FS: 16.7.
Match halves
Ogre United: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.56. Rīgas FS: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.11.
Goals by minute
Ogre United: 46-60 (4 goals). Rīgas FS: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.81 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rīgas FS are the favorites: as leaders (position 1) they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss this season, while Ogre United have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. In their last 5 matches Rīgas scored 9 goals and averaged 2.6 points per game (4 wins and 1 draw), whereas Ogre scored 3 goals, failed to win any match and average only 0.4 points per game with 9 goals conceded. The visitors create significantly more chances: on average 16.5 shots and 5.0 on target per away match with xG 1.92, versus 10.5 shots and 1.83 on target and xG 1.10 for the home side. Defensively Rīgas perform better — they concede 0.25 goals away and keep 75% clean sheets, while the hosts concede 1.17 goals at home, have no clean sheets and only 33% of matches without conceding; additionally xG against shows 0.64 for the visitors versus 1.64 for the hosts. Considering the advantage in chance creation (xG 1.92 vs 1.10), higher shot volume (16.5 vs 10.5), superior defense (0.25 vs 1.17) and clear form (2.6 vs 0.4 pts/game), I tip a win for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Rīgas FS records a seasonal 75% clean sheet rate and concedes only 0.25 goals per game on average, while the visitors have only 25% of matches with BTTS—this is the strongest signal against Goal/Goal. Ogre United have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per game) and conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game); despite a seasonal home scoring rate of 2.2 goals per game, their offensive form is limited. Seasonal xG is similar (1.94 for Ogre vs 1.92 for Rīgas), but recent xG conceded shows a big gap: 1.85 for the hosts versus 0.73 for the visitors, confirming Rīgas FS’s improved defensive organization recently. Despite a league-level BTTS of 60%, the advantage in clean sheet statistics (75% vs 40%) and the visitors’ form (last 5: 4 wins and a draw) point to No Goal being more likely. I estimate BTTS probability at around 25% and No Goal at 75%, therefore I recommend backing 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The attacking xG is 1.94 for Ogre United and 1.92 for Rīgas FS, while xG conceded vs this opponent is 0.76 (home) and 0.64 (away). Averaging the teams’ attack and opponent defense yields expected goals of 1.29 for the home side ((1.94+0.64)/2) and 1.34 for the away side ((1.92+0.76)/2), totaling 2.63 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.63 produces roughly a 74% chance of Over 1.5 (probability of 0–1 goals ≈26%), ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~27% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, the visitors have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 avg) versus the hosts’ 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 avg), and the home team has a higher shot conversion rate 13% vs 8% with a similar shot volume (16.8 vs 16.5), confirming real goal-scoring potential. For these reasons I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the most probable and strongest line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Rīgas FS led at the break in 3 of their 4 matches (75%) and have 100% clean sheets at half-time, while Ogre United led at the break only once (20%). In their last 5 matches Rīgas show form 'wwwwd' (4 wins and 1 draw, 80% win rate), whereas Ogre are 'lddll' (0 wins in 5, 0%), which clearly favors the visitors. Seasonally Ogre average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while Rīgas score 1.25 and concede only 0.25, with very similar xG of 1.94 versus 1.92, so the advantage lies in the visitors’ defensive stability. Given Rīgas’ 75% leads at the break and their 100% half-time clean sheets combined with dominant form, the strongest scenario is Rīgas leading at the break and ultimately winning (2/2). I assign this scenario the highest probability (51%); the second most likely is a draw at half-time and a visitor turnaround to win (X/2 15%); a home lead at half-time and home win is assessed as unlikely (1/1 4%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ogre United | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 20% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rīgas FS is 550% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Ogre United · 2.6 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rīgas FS is 218% better for: goals scored per match.
0.56 goals / match - Ogre United · 1.78 goals / match - Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS is 149% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Ogre United · 0.67 goals / match - Rīgas FS
Ogre United scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Rīgas FS keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 matches).
Rīgas FS scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ogre United
Over / Under - Rīgas FS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rīgas FS is 305% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.44 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.78 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ogre United - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Rīgas FS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 78%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Ogre United | Liga | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.22 | 2.81 | ▼ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 56% | 60% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 50% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 20% | ▲ 56% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 75% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 85% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ogre United 0 - 0 - 1 Rīgas FS. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ogre United vs Rīgas FS?
The Virsliga match finished Ogre United 3:4 Rīgas FS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ogre United vs Rīgas FS?
Ogre United score 0.56 goals per game on average and Rīgas FS 1.78. The Virsliga average is 2.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Ogre United's matches and 33% of Rīgas FS's.
What form are Ogre United and Rīgas FS in?
Over the last 5 games Ogre United have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Rīgas FS 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ogre United vs Rīgas FS?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ogre United vs Rīgas FS: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.