Ogre United vs Super Nova: match statistics
Ogre United vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ogre United played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Ogre United: 0-1-2, 0.33 points/match. Super Nova: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ogre United scores 0.33 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.33 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ogre United 33%, Super Nova 100%. Over 2.5: Ogre United 0%, Super Nova 67%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Super Nova has higher xG: 1.51 vs 0.90. Ogre United: 7.7 shots per match, Super Nova: 11.7.
Match halves
Ogre United: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33. Super Nova: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Ogre United: 46-60 (1 goals). Super Nova: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Super Nova has a clear advantage in offense: on average 1.5 goals per away match versus the hosts’ 0.5 goals at home, and in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 goals while Ogre United scored 5. The visitors average 5 shots on target per away match with a conversion rate of 14%, whereas the hosts produce only 2 shots on target and a 5% conversion, indicating Super Nova creates and converts significantly better scoring opportunities. Nominally the hosts have a slightly better defence (conceding 1.0 goals at home on average versus 1.5 conceded by Super Nova away), but Ogre United has not won at home yet (0% wins) and failed to score in 50% of home games. xG also favors the visitors: Super Nova’s average away xG is 1.45 versus the hosts’ 1.19 xG, and xG against is comparable (1.63 vs 1.68), which suggests a real advantage for the visitors in creating quality chances. Considering these figures and the identical 1.4 points per match over the last 5 fixtures for both teams, I forecast a Super Nova victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have season-long BTTS at 100% (Ogre United 100%, Super Nova 100%), while the league average BTTS is 60%, which is a strong signal in favor of BTTS - Yes. In xG terms the home side has xG_for 1.65 versus the visitors' 1.45, and defenses concede 1.80 (home) and 1.63 (away) xG against respectively, indicating chances are being created and conceded by both teams. In the last 5 matches there is a discrepancy — home BTTS is only 20% versus 80% for the away side — but recently the home team averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while the visitors average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, so both sides are capable of scoring. Additionally both teams average 5 shots on target per match and have no clean sheets this season (0% each), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering 100% season BTTS for both, the xG and shot counts, I give the 'both teams to score' scenario the edge and rate BTTS at 75% vs 25% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Aggregate xG indicates a high scoring potential: Ogre United’s attacking xG is 1.65 while Super Nova concede an average xG of 1.63, implying expected home goals ≈1.64; similarly Super Nova’s attacking xG is 1.45 and Ogre United’s average xG conceded is 1.80, implying expected away goals ≈1.63, total ≈3.27 goals. With that mean and a Poisson distribution, probability of Over 1.5 ≈84%, Over 2.5 ≈64% and Over 3.5 ≈41%. Additionally both teams have scored in every match this season (100% of games) and in the last 5 matches the away side scored 8 goals (home side 5), which confirms a tendency toward goals. Finishing differences are visible in shots: the home team averages 14 shots with 7% conversion (≈0.98 goals), the away team 10.5 shots with 14% conversion (≈1.47 goals), which together support the projected total ≈3.27 and justify choosing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the metrics favor the away side: average first-half goals are 1.0 for the away team versus 0.0 for the home team, and the away side led at the break in 50% of matches (vs 0% for hosts). However, hosts create more opportunities (xG 1.65 vs 1.45 and 14.0 shots vs 10.5) and in the second half average 1.0 goal while conceding virtually none (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.0, conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.0), giving them a realistic chance for a turnaround. Nonetheless, the away team’s higher finishing efficiency (conversion rate 14% vs 7%) and a season-long average of 1.5 goals for the away side versus 1.0 for the hosts increase the probability of maintaining the lead. After modeling HT/FT scenarios from these figures the strongest signal is 2/2 (~28%), with a noteworthy alternative being X/1 (~19%) due to the hosts’ second-half strength.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ogre United | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 17% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Super Nova is 303% better for: last-5 form.
0.33 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.33 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 303% better for: goals scored per match.
0.33 goals / match - Ogre United · 1.33 goals / match - Super Nova
Ogre United scores in 33% of matches (1 of 3 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
Super Nova scores in 100% of matches (3 of 3 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ogre United
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Super Nova is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / match - Ogre United · 1 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ogre United - second-half results
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 33% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 33% |
| No goal | 100% | 67% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 33% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 33% | 33% |
| No goal | 67% | 33% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ogre United
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Ogre United | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.67 | 2.53 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 60% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 20% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 33% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ogre United vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Ogre United 1:2 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ogre United vs Super Nova?
Ogre United score 0.33 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.33. The Virsliga average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Ogre United's matches and 100% of Super Nova's.
What form are Ogre United and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Ogre United have a 0-1-2 record (0.33 points per game) and Super Nova 1-1-1 (1.33 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ogre United vs Super Nova?
The statistical background for Ogre United vs Super Nova — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.