Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town: match statistics

Oldham Athletic have a clear home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches, while Crawley Town have lost 60% of their away games. The hosts average 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per away match. In their last five games, Oldham recorded 2 wins and scored 9 goals, while Crawley won once despite scoring 10 goals in that span. The quality of chances created is similar — xG stands at 1.50 for the hosts and 1.51 for the visitors — but Oldham are more clinical at home (13% compared with Crawley’s 8% away from home). The visitors are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home, and, combined with Oldham’s stronger home goal record, this points to a home win.

Both teams have a high rate of matches in which both sides score: 67% for Oldham and 80% for Crawley, compared with 55% league-wide. Neither has kept a clean sheet so far, and they concede an average of 2.0 and 1.8 goals per match respectively, which increases the likelihood of their opponents scoring. Over their last five matches, Oldham have averaged 1.8 goals and Crawley 2.0; both teams scored in 60% and 80% of their respective matches during that period. Their attacking potential is further supported by xG figures of 1.48 for the hosts and 1.51 for the visitors, although Oldham have failed to score in 33% of their matches, so the risk of one side drawing a blank remains. However, the consistent attacking indicators and defensive frailties point to BTTS - Yes.

Over 1.5 goals landed in 83% of Oldham’s matches and 100% of Crawley’s, giving this line the strongest support in the results. Both teams concede plenty on average: Oldham 2.0 goals per match and Crawley 1.8, with neither having kept a clean sheet yet. Their attacking potential also points to goals — average xG stands at 1.48 for the hosts and 1.51 for the visitors, while in their last five matches the teams scored 1.8 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively. A projected total of 3.03 goals supports a match with at least two goals, although the Over 2.5 line is less certain: it landed in 50% of Oldham’s matches and 60% of Crawley’s. Therefore, the best pick is Over 1.5 goals.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Oldham win at full-time. The hosts were drawing at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches, while Crawley kept a clean sheet in the first half 3 times over the same period; neither team scored before half-time in 3 of 5 matches. Oldham’s stronger recent form supports a home win: 1.6 points per match compared with Crawley’s 1.0, and second-half wins in 3 of 5 matches versus 2 of 5 for the visitors. Oldham conceded an average of just 0.4 goals after the break in their last five matches, while Crawley conceded 1.2, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will settle a closely contested match after the interval. However, this is not a confident pick, as Oldham have not recorded a win over the full period analysed, so the X/1 scenario has only a slight edge over the alternatives.