Olimpia Zambrów vs Wigry Suwałki: match statistics

Olimpia Zambrów have a clearly greater attacking potential at home, averaging 3.25 goals per match, while Wigry Suwałki score 1.67 goals away from home. The hosts also register more shots on target (7.33 versus 5.67) and boast superior finishing efficiency, at 29% compared with the visitors’ 13%. However, Wigry remain unbeaten away from home, drawing 67% of such matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Olimpia’s defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.25 goals at home, but the visitors allow opponents to create high-quality chances, with an average xG against of 1.92. With home advantage and greater consistency in creating and converting chances, a narrow Olimpia victory is the more likely outcome.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS comes from current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded this scenario in 80% of games. During this period, Olimpia averaged 2.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 3.2, while Wigry scored 1.2 goals and allowed opponents to score 2.0. The visitors’ attacking potential is supported by an average of 1.67 goals scored per match and 5.67 shots on target, while their lack of clean sheets this season favors the home side finding the net. Olimpia does have a 75% clean-sheet rate in the season data; however, its latest xG conceded stands at 2.25, while Wigry create an average of 1.77 xG, which significantly weakens the case for a No Goal outcome for the visitors. Additionally, the league BTTS average is 67%, making the scenario in which both teams score at least once more likely.

The latest form of both teams clearly strengthens the goals projection: in their last 5 matches, Olimpia averaged 2.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 3.2, while Wigry scored 1.2 and allowed opponents to score 2.0. In the same sample, Olimpia’s matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases, compared with 60% for Wigry, while both teams scored in 80% of each team’s matches. Wigry have averaged 1.77 xG across their last five appearances, while Olimpia’s defense allowed opponents 2.25 xG, supporting a high-scoring projection for the visitors. Caution around the 2.5 line is warranted by the season data, with only 25% of Olimpia’s matches and 33% of Wigry’s exceeding three goals; however, the 1.5-goal threshold should be cleared much more frequently. Over 1.5 therefore has the strongest foundation, supported both by the current number of goals conceded and Wigry’s attacking potential.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Wigry win at full-time (X/2). Both teams were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their matches, while Wigry led at the break in 0% of games. Olimpia has a clearly better first-half record, averaging 1.67 points per match compared with Wigry’s 0.67. After the break, however, the advantage shifts towards the visitors: Wigry average 1.33 goals, whereas Olimpia have yet to score in the second half and concede an average of 0.67 goals during that period. The visitors also create more chances overall, averaging 13.33 shots and 5.67 shots on target compared with Olimpia’s 9.5 and 4.5, while their xG stands at 1.61. Wigry remain unbeaten this season, with 67% of their matches ending in draws, so after an evenly balanced start, they have solid grounds to secure the win in the closing stages.