Olympiakos Piraeus II vs Marko: match statistics

Marko remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Olympiakos Piraeus II have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors have scored 6 goals and conceded just 4 during this period, whereas the hosts have a significantly weaker record: 3 goals scored and 9 conceded. Across the season so far, Marko have won both of their matches and conceded just 1 goal, while Olympiakos have 1 win, 1 draw and a 3:2 goal difference after two appearances. The average points tally from the last five matches also favors the visitors, who are averaging 1.8 points per game compared with the hosts’ 0.8. Marko’s advantage in current defensive stability and results trend makes them the favorites, although the visitors’ run of three consecutive draws also increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The “No” pick has a slight edge, as Olympiakos II have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches so far, conceding just 0.5 goals on average. Marko are, however, in good scoring form: they have averaged 1.2 goals across their last five matches, with an xG of 1.15, while the hosts have conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period. The key limitation for BTTS is Olympiakos II’s attack, which has scored just 3 goals in their last five outings—0.6 per match—with an xG of only 0.95. Marko have conceded just 0.8 goals per game in this run and allowed opponents an average of 0.90 xG, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will fail to score. In the league, both teams score in 44% of matches, so the more likely scenario is that at least one team will be left without a goal.

The league profile clearly favors lower-scoring outcomes: the average is just 1.94 goals, and the 2.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 31% of matches. Olympiakos II have scored just 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 games, despite averaging 1.5 goals at home over the course of the season. Marko are in better attacking form, averaging 1.2 goals with an xG of 1.15 across their last five appearances, while the home defence allowed just 0.9 xG during that period. The hosts have recently conceded 1.8 goals per match, giving the visitors a chance to score, but the projected total of 2.16 goals remains clearly below the 3.5-goal line. Additionally, none of Olympiakos II’s matches so far have produced more than 3.5 goals, which is why Under 3.5 has the strongest support in the data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Marko victory at full-time, as the visitors have been level at the break in all of their last five matches, losing none of them. Over the same period, Olympiakos II were trailing at half-time in four of five matches, failed to score before the break and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. After the interval, Marko score an average of 0.8 goals and have lost none of their last five matches, while the home side have lost three of five and concede an average of 1.8 goals per match. The hosts do have two wins from two previous home matches, but such a small sample is a weaker argument than Marko’s current form: 1.8 points per match compared with Olympiakos II’s 0.8.