Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI: match statistics

Olympiakos are unbeaten in their three league matches so far, recording 2 wins and 1 draw, while at home they won their only match without conceding. The hosts create significantly more chances on their own ground, averaging 26 shots, including 10 on target, with an xG of 2.97, whereas OFI manage just 1.15 xG and 3 shots on target away from home. Olympiakos’ defence has allowed only 0.80 xG against at home and kept a clean sheet, while OFI conceded 2 goals in their only away match despite their opponents recording 2.03 xG. Both teams have averaged 2 points per match across their last five outings, but OFI lost their only match away from home, which, combined with the hosts’ clear advantage in chance quality, strongly reinforces the pick for Olympiakos.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Olympiakos have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far and have conceded not a single goal per game. OFI have averaged 1.0 goal away from home, but in their last 5 appearances, the opponents of both teams scored only 0.6 goals against Olympiakos and 0.4 goals against OFI, limiting the number of open games. BTTS in the last five matches stood at just 40% for the home side and 20% for the visitors, clearly below the league average of 45%. Olympiakos have a very strong attacking argument against OFI’s weak defence, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals away from home and allows opponents an xG of 2.03, making a home goal combined with at least one team failing to score the more likely outcome. Although OFI average 3.0 shots on target and have an xG of 1.15, their conversion rate is only 10%, further supporting the No Goal scenario for the visitors.

In their last 5 matches, Olympiakos scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded just 0.6, while OFI recorded 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded. The average total goals in these runs was therefore 2.2 for the hosts and 1.8 for the visitors, with Over 2.5 goals landing in just 40% of Olympiakos matches and 20% of OFI matches. The hosts possess clear attacking potential, as confirmed by an xG of 2.01 across their last five appearances, while OFI allowed opponents an xG of 1.74, making a moderate Olympiakos goal tally the most likely outcome. At the same time, both teams conceded only 5 goals combined in their last five matches, which limits the prospect of an open, high-scoring game. The value lies with Under 3.5 goals, as the expected total of 2.25 leaves a wide margin for a maximum of three goals.

Olympiakos have won all of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding none, while OFI lost their only away fixture with a 1.0:2.0 goal record. The first-half signal is particularly strong: the hosts were leading at the break in 2 out of 2 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals in those games and keeping clean sheets, whereas OFI were trailing 0:1 after 45 minutes in their away fixture. Olympiakos scored one goal in each of the first 15 minutes and minutes 16–30, as well as two between the 31st and 45th minutes, indicating a strong ability to build a lead before half-time. OFI have a higher average attacking xG, 1.15 compared with 0.81, but they also allow opponents an xG of 2.03, clearly more than the hosts’ 1.32. The most likely scenario is therefore Olympiakos leading at the break and maintaining their win until full-time, although OFI’s good form over their last five matches reduces confidence in the prediction.