Olympiakos vs Anorthosis: match statistics

I back the home win: Olympiakos shows superior home attacking efficiency — averaging 0.93 goals per game with an 11% shot conversion rate versus Anorthosis’s 0.67 goals and 8% conversion on the road. Both teams produce a similar volume of shots and comparable possession (8.47 vs 8.40 shots per game and 49% possession), and xG is nearly equal (1.14 vs 1.10), so the home edge stems primarily from better finishing. Defensively both sides concede 1.33 goals per game on average, but Olympiakos allows a higher expected xG against (1.54 vs 1.34), indicating the match could be open and present chances for the opponent. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 9 goals and Anorthosis averages 2.0 points per game versus Olympiakos’s 1.8, yet the visitors more often finish games without scoring (53% vs 40%), which favors the home side. Considering the home attack’s efficiency and the higher share of scoreless games for Anorthosis, I give a slight edge to Olympiakos and estimate probabilities around 47% for the home win, 28% for a draw and 25% for the away win.

I project BTTS - Yes at 53% vs 47% because signals are mixed but slightly favor both teams scoring. Olympiakos has a season BTTS rate of 65% and BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, with xG 1.49 and on average 4.35 shots on target and 11.41 shots per game, highlighting their chance-creation capacity. Anorthosis scores only 0.67 goals per game season-to-date and fails to score in 53% of away matches, with their season BTTS at just 20%, which weakens the 'Yes' scenario. However, the last 5 matches show both teams have scored a combined 9 goals each (1.8 per game) and Anorthosis has 40% BTTS in that span while Olympiakos is at 80%, so recent form increases the visitors' likelihood of at least one goal. Considering shot conversion (13% for the home side vs 8% for the visitors) and the fact the home side is more likely to score (xG 1.49 vs opponents' xG 1.34), I recommend 'Yes' as the most probable pick, with moderate risk.

Based on xG the home side have 1.49 xG while Anorthosis’ defense concedes 1.34 xG — the average yields about 1.42 expected goals for Olympiakos; the visitors have 1.10 xG against the home defense’s 1.16 xG, giving ~1.13 for Anorthosis, total ≈2.55. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs in 82% of home matches and 53% of away matches, and the league averages 2.6 goals per game, so the 1.5 line is strongly supported by the data. The 2.5 line is more uncertain: season Over2.5 is 35% for Olympiakos and 27% for Anorthosis, but in Olympiakos’ last 5 matches Over2.5 is 80% — in those five fixtures the hosts scored 9 and conceded 6, which mixes the signals and places Over2.5 close to balance. Over 3.5 looks unlikely, as seasonal shares are 24% for the home side and 20% for the visitors, and the away team posts a low average of 2.53 shots on target with a conversion rate of 8%, limiting very-high-score potential. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: over), since xG 1.42+1.13=2.55 and seasonal Over1.5 rates 82%/53% provide the strongest and most consistent signal.

Statistics indicate the highest probability for a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Olympiakos drew at home in 59% of matches, and were level at the break in 35% of games, while Anorthosis were level at half-time in 47% of away fixtures, which increases the likelihood of a draw in both phases. Although the home side have superior xG (1.49 vs 1.10) and more shots on target (4.35 vs 2.53), their average goals scored by half-time is only 0.53 versus the visitors’ 0.27, so the offensive advantage does not necessarily translate into a lead at the break. Additionally, most of the home goals arrive late (5 goals in 31–45 and 7 goals in 76–90), and the seasonal draw rate of 59% makes the X/X scenario the strongest signal.