Olympiakos vs Nea Salamis: match statistics

Nea Salamis have shown slightly better form over their last five matches, collecting 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, while Olympiakos have picked up 9 points from 3 victories and 2 defeats. The visitors have been clearly more clinical, scoring 11 goals during this period—an average of 2.2 per match—compared with Olympiakos’ 7 goals, or 1.4 per game. Both teams have conceded 5 goals in their last five matches, so Nea Salamis’ advantage is primarily driven by their greater attacking potential. Olympiakos lost the two oldest matches in their current run but then secured three consecutive victories, which narrows the gap between the sides. Despite the lack of complete home-and-away data, the visitors’ superior goal difference in their current form points to a narrow victory for Nea Salamis.

In their last 5 matches, both Olympiakos and Nea Salamis recorded BTTS in 60% of games, i.e. in 3 out of 5 cases. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while the visitors scored as many as 2.2 goals per match, with the same average of 1.0 goals conceded. Nea Salamis have scored 11 goals in their last five outings, compared with Olympiakos' 7, indicating that both sides regularly find the back of the net. The BTTS signal is weakened by the visitors' very low xG of 0.22, but this is in clear contrast with their actual tally of 11 goals. With both defences conceding an average of one goal per match, a scenario featuring goals at both ends is slightly more likely. BTTS - Yes has a marginal edge.

In their last five matches, Olympiakos averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, resulting in 12 total goals in their games, or 2.4 per match. Over the same period, Nea Salamis scored 11 goals, averaging 2.2 per game, while their five goals conceded brought the total to 16 goals in their matches, or 3.2 per game. The 2.5 line was covered in 60% of the hosts’ last matches and in as many as 80% of the visitors’ games. However, Nea Salamis’ xG data is clearly inconsistent with their goal output, so I take a more cautious view of higher lines. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals, as the current attacking output of both teams and the average projected total of 2.80 goals clearly point towards at least two goals.

Nea Salamis have started their last five matches significantly better, leading at the break in 60% of them, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Olympiakos were ahead at half-time in 40% of their games, while their half-time goal difference was only +1 compared with their opponents’ +7. The visitors have also been more effective over 90 minutes, averaging 2.2 goals compared with Olympiakos’ 1.4, and both teams have won 60% of their last five matches. After the break, Olympiakos perform slightly better in terms of points, meaning turnaround scenarios retain a significant share of the probability. However, Nea Salamis’ first-half advantage makes the HT/FT 2/2 outcome—the visitors leading at the break and going on to win—the most likely scenario.