Olympic Safi vs FUS Rabat: match statistics

FUS Rabat are the favorites: they sit 8th vs Olympic Safi’s 16th and have 7 wins this season compared to only 2 for the hosts. In the last 5 matches the visitors recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 5 (averaging 2.0 points per game), while the hosts have not won any of their last 5 (0-2-3), scoring 5 and conceding 9 (averaging 0.4 points per game). Home side advantages include higher possession (55%) and slightly higher home xG (1.34 vs 1.24), as well as more shots (10.44 vs 9.8) and shots on target (3.56 vs 3.3); however Olympic show low finishing efficiency — only 7% conversion and 0.78 goals per home game. FUS compensate with efficiency: 12% shot conversion and 1.2 goals per away game, and in the last five matches the visitors’ defense conceded 5 goals versus 9 for the hosts, indicating better form and greater short-term effectiveness. Considering FUS’s edge in efficiency (12% vs 7%), superior form (2.0 points per game vs 0.4) and better win record (7 vs 2), I project an away win; probabilities: away 60%, draw 25%, home 15%.

I back BTTS - Yes because Olympic Safi has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% and BTTS occurred in 100% of their last 5 matches, strongly indicating the home side both scores and concedes. The hosts generate on average xG 1.46 and 4.22 shots on target with an average of 1.22 goals per game, while FUS Rabat has xG_against 1.33 and concedes on average 1.5 goals this season, so both teams present offensive and defensive factors that favor goals. The visitors have a seasonal BTTS rate of 40% and 40% in their last 5 matches, but in their last 5 performances they have xG_for 1.4 and scored 6 goals (1.2 per game), providing a realistic chance to score. Clean sheets are also rare: hosts 22% and visitors 20%, the league averages 2.17 goals per match, and Olympic Safi concedes on average 1.8 goals in their last 5 games, which increases the probability of both teams scoring. Therefore I estimate the probability of BTTS at about 72% versus 28% for No Goal, based on the strong home signal 67%/100% and the improvement in the visitors’ offense (xG 1.4 recently).

I project 1.40 expected goals for Olympic Safi and 1.19 for FUS Rabat, totaling 2.59 xG for the match. This aligns with seasonal stats: Safi scores 1.22 goals per game on average (xG 1.46), FUS 1.20 goals (xG 1.24), and the teams concede 1.11 and 1.50 goals respectively, which supports a higher combined total. A Poisson model based on total xG=2.59 yields probability for Over 1.5 goals of around 73% (P≥2), Over 2.5 goals around 48% (P≥3), and Over 3.5 goals around 26% (P≥4). Additionally, Safi has 78% of matches over 1.5, FUS 70%, and Safi averages 4.22 shots on target versus 3.3 for FUS, increasing the likelihood of at least 2 goals. For these reasons I recommend playing Over 1.5 — it is the strongest signal, as the 73% chance clearly exceeds 48% for Over 2.5 and 26% for Over 3.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely scenario: the home side were level at the break in 44% of matches and the visitors in 40%, giving roughly a 42% chance of a draw after 45 minutes. At the same time the hosts won 44% of their home games and led at the break in 33% of cases; when leading after 45 minutes they converted that into a final victory in 56% of situations, hence 1/1 has the largest single share (~18%). If the match is tied at half-time, taking into account the seasonal distribution of results (44% home wins, 33% draws, 22% away wins) and the visitors’ good form in the last 5 matches (60% wins), I adopted a final distribution favoring the home side (about 40% home win, 30% draw and 30% away win), which yields X/1 ≈17%, X/X ≈12% and X/2 ≈13%. Scenarios where the home side lead at the break but lose at full-time (1/2) and vice versa (2/1) are judged unlikely (around 5% each), because the hosts tend to hold their lead in most cases (56%), and turnarounds are less common. In summary, the strongest signal is 1/1 at approximately 18% probability, with further significant options being X/1 (17%) and draw/draw (12–13%).