Olympic Safi vs Maghreb Fès: match statistics

I back the away win (2). Maghreb Fès holds a clear defensive edge: they concede only 0.45 goals per away match and record 55% clean sheets, while Olympic Safi concede 1.5 goals at home on average and have just a 20% clean-sheet rate. The visitors are also more efficient in attack — scoring 1.09 goals away with a 14% conversion rate, whereas the hosts score 0.8 goals at home with an 8% conversion, despite taking more shots (10.2 vs 8) and posting higher xG (1.31 for the hosts vs 1.01 for the visitors). Form and points tempo favor the travelers: Olympic Safi have failed to win any of their last 5 matches (0-3-2) and average 0.6 pts per game in that run, while Maghreb Fès average 1.4 pts per game over their last 5. The table gap (hosts 16th vs visitors 3rd) and goal difference (-7 for the hosts vs +7 for the visitors) further support Maghreb Fès as the favorite.

Statistical analysis points to a “No” scenario — I assess BTTS at 30% (Yes) and 70% (No). Olympic Safi has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 20% and keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches, while Maghreb Fès posts BTTS 45% and 55% clean sheets, indicating that in the majority of games at least one team does not concede. Average goals conceded are low: Olympic concedes 0.6 goals per game, Maghreb 0.45; in the last 5 matches Olympic conceded 7 goals (1.4 avg), Maghreb 3 goals (0.6 avg), which strengthens the defensive profile of the visitors. Olympic’s attack is slightly stronger (1.7 goals avg, xG 1.33 and 4.1 shots on target per game) than Maghreb (1.09 goals, xG 1.01 and 3.18 shots on target), but the offensive gap does not compensate for the clear clean sheet percentages.

The xG model and defensive profiles indicate 1.23 xG for Olympic Safi and 1.09 xG for Maghreb Fès, totaling 2.32 expected goals. A Poisson distribution on that sum yields roughly a 67% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 41% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and around 21% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal figures support a low-scoring match: the home side has 60% clean sheets, the away side 55%, and Over 2.5 matches stand at only 30% for the home team and 18% for the visitors. Additionally, the hosts average 9.4 shots and 4.1 on target with a conversion rate of 18%, while the guests average 8.0 shots and 3.18 on target with a 14% conversion; combined with the 2.32 total xG this suggests a moderate number of goal-scoring opportunities but not necessarily frequent high-scoring outcomes. For these reasons I recommend the line Under 3.5 (side: Under) as the strongest signal — the expected 2.32 goals and season Over3.5 rates of 30%/0% translate to approximately a 79% probability the match will finish below 3.5 goals.

The data indicate a home advantage: Olympic Safi averages 1.7 goals per match versus Maghreb Fès’s 1.09, with home xG 1.33 compared to 1.01 for the visitors; hosts also average 4.1 shots on target per game against 3.18 for their opponents and convert at a higher rate (18% vs 14%). At half-time the hosts led in 50% of their matches, while the visitors led in only 27%; in the last five fixtures Olympic Safi led at the break in 60% of cases, confirming a tendency to take early initiative. Half-by-half statistics show hosts score an average of 0.6 goals before the break vs 0.45 for the visitors, and after the break hosts score 1.1 goals on average compared to 0.64 for Maghreb Fès; additionally the hosts have netted 7 goals in minutes 76–90 versus just 1 goal by the visitors in that period. Both teams concede few goals before half-time (hosts 0.2, visitors 0.18) and record high percentages of half-time clean sheets (80% and 82%), so many matches start level, yet the hosts’ superior offensive output after the break increases the likelihood of retaining a lead. Therefore the strongest signal in the data is the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1).