Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane: match statistics

Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording identical form of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Olympique Béja scored 4 goals during this period, compared with just 3 for Ben Guerdane, but the visitors have defended significantly better, conceding only 2 goals versus 5 for the hosts. Ben Guerdane sit in 10th place, four positions above 14th-placed Olympique Béja, which slightly strengthens their case, although the gap is not substantial. The hosts lost their only league match so far without scoring, so they may struggle to capitalise on home advantage. The low scoring output of both teams and their comparable results over the last five matches point primarily to a closely contested, likely drawn encounter.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams score in only 28% of league matches, with an average of just 1.71 goals per game. Ben Guerdane have scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while conceding just 2 and recording BTTS in 0% of those fixtures. Olympique Béja have also failed to impress in attack, averaging 0.8 goals in their last 5 matches, although their xG stands at 1.29. The visitors have allowed opponents an xG of 1.07, but their effective defence and the very low attacking output of both sides increase the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. A scenario in which only one side finds the net, especially in a low-scoring game, looks clearly more likely than both teams scoring.

The league profile clearly favors low-scoring outcomes: the average is just 1.71 goals per match, while games with at least three goals account for only 14%. In their last five matches, Olympique Béja averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, for a combined total of 1.8 goals per game. Over the same period, Ben Guerdane scored 0.6 goals and conceded just 0.4, with none of their five matches surpassing the 2.5-goal line. The hosts have recently recorded 1.29 xG, compared with Ben Guerdane’s opponents’ xG of 1.07, while the visitors’ attacking potential stands at just 0.71 xG, so I rate their expected goal contribution as low. With a projected total of 1.60 goals, the safest selection is Under 3.5, as four or more goals would require a clear deviation from both teams’ current form and the league’s scoring environment.

The strongest scenario is a draw at both half-time and full-time, as both teams have been level at the break in 40% of their last five matches. First halves have been very tight: Béja averaged 0.4 goals before the break, while Ben Guerdane averaged only 0.2, with just 0.8 and 0.6 total goals respectively in these phases. Ben Guerdane conceded an average of 0.0 goals after the break and kept a clean sheet in the second half in all five of their last matches, significantly limiting the hosts’ chances of a turnaround. The visitors also score only 0.4 goals per match after the interval, while their games produced an average of 1.0 goals compared with Béja’s 1.8. The teams’ equal points form, at 1.4 points per match in their latest run, together with the low league average of 1.71 goals, further supports the forecast of a cautious draw.