Olympique Dcheïra vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

I predict an away victory — Raja Casablanca — who sit 3rd versus the home side in 13th; they have 11 wins versus 4 and a goal record of 25–8 versus 17–29. In the last 5 matches the hosts have not won once (0–2–3, 0.4 pts per match), whereas Raja have won 3 of 5 (3–0–2, 1.8 pts per match). The visitors’ defense is decisive: the hosts concede 1.9 goals on average at home and have 0% home clean sheets, while Raja concede 0.56 goals away with 56% clean sheets and only 8 goals conceded in the season versus the hosts’ 29. In attack Raja are more efficient — conversion 12% with 3.78 shots on target per match and 1.11 away goals — while the hosts score 0.6 goals at home despite an average xG of 1.34, and failed to score in 50% of home games (vs 22% for the visitors). Based on these figures I assign Raja a 75% probability of victory, 18% draw and 7% home win.

I back 'No' (Both Teams To Score - No) at 70% vs 30% for 'Yes' because seasonal signals predominantly oppose BTTS. Seasonal metrics show Olympique with only 18% of matches featuring both teams scoring, and Raja 33%, versus a league BTTS average of 50%. Season goal averages are 1.36 (Olympique) and 1.11 (Raja), which do not support elevated goal counts. Additionally, clean sheet rates are 73% for Olympique and 56% for Raja, and matches over 2.5 goals occur only 18% and 11% respectively, all favoring one-sided scorelines. Counterarguments appear in xG and recent form: Olympique xG_for 1.56 vs xG_against_away 1.34 and Raja xG_for 1.24 vs xG_against_home 0.75, and Olympique has BTTS = 80% in the last 5 matches, but that is a smaller sample. Considering the weight of the seasonal figures (73% and 56% clean sheets and 18%/33% BTTS), I regard 'No' as the strongest signal (70% vs 30%).

Total expected goals from xG are about 2.45: the home side generates 1.56 xG per match while the visitors concede 1.34 xG, implying ~1.45 expected goals for the home team; the away side has 1.24 xG and the home defence concedes 0.75 xG, translating to ~1.00 expected goal for the visitors. A Poisson model for this total (λ=2.45) yields approximate probabilities of ~70% for Over 1.5, ~44% for Over 2.5 and ~23% for Over 3.5. Seasonal metrics align with this picture: Over1.5 occurred in 45% of home matches and 67% of away matches (56% on average), whereas Over2.5 only appeared in 18% and 11% of cases respectively (≈14.5% on average), which limits the reliability of betting >2.5. Additionally, the home team averages 12.45 shots (4.91 on target) while the visitors average 9.44 shots (3.78 on target), so shot pressure points to at least two goals but not decisively to three. Consequently the most profitable and reliable line is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1) — I assign it 36% because both teams very often keep a clean sheet until half-time: the home side in 91% and the visitors in 100% of matches without conceding before the break. The home team posts better season metrics: they score on average 1.36 goals per match and concede 0.27 (versus 1.11 scored and 0.56 conceded for the away team), have average xG 1.56 vs 1.24 and average points per game 2.18 vs 1.67, which gives them an advantage in deciding matches. Additionally, the home side most often decide games late — 6 goals in minutes 76–90 and an average of 0.73 goals in the second half (vs 0.56 for the visitors) while conceding only 0.18 goals after the break, so a lead at the break often converts to a home victory. However, recent form must be considered: the home team have not won in their last 5 matches (0% wins, form 'llldd'), while the visitors have 60% wins in their last 5, so alternatives such as X/X (22%) and 1/1 (16%) also carry meaningful probability. In summary, I prioritize X/1 (36%), with relatively low probability for X/2 (3%) and moderate chances for other combinations.