Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre: match statistics

Olympique Lyonnais sit 3rd, while Auxerre are down in 18th, and the visitors have lost both of their league matches so far. Lyon have scored 8 goals and conceded just 4 in their last five games, whereas Auxerre have allowed 9 goals over the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.49 xG from 15 shots and 5 shots on target per match, clearly outperforming Auxerre’s away output of 1.28 xG, 10 shots and 4 shots on target. The key factor is the visitors’ defensive weakness on the road: they concede an average of 5 goals per game, with 1.68 xG against them, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Lyon have also failed to impress with their home record so far, as their only home match ended in a 1:1 draw, but greater possession control (57% versus 47%) and a more favourable defensive trend point to a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as in their league matches so far, both Lyon and Auxerre have recorded BTTS at 100%, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. Lyon creates plenty of chances, averaging 20 shots, including 7 on target, with an xG of 1.97, while Auxerre concede as many as 5 goals per match on average and allow opponents an xG of 1.68. The visitors also have grounds to respond: their average xG stands at 1.28, while Lyon allows opponents an xG of 1.47. Caution is warranted based on the last five matches, in which BTTS for both teams dropped to 60%, and Lyon conceded only 0.8 goals per match. However, the attacking numbers and Auxerre’s defensive weakness still provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes option.

In their last 5 matches, Lyon averaged 1.6 goals with an xG of 1.67, while Auxerre conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.55. However, the hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 20 shots and 7 on target, which supports Lyon scoring at least once. On the other hand, Lyon conceded only 4 goals in their last five matches, while Auxerre averaged 1.2 goals scored, so the forecast for the visitors remains close to one goal. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in just 40% of their last five appearances, and with an expected total of 2.60 goals, the likelihood of a game featuring four or more goals is limited. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as scenarios with 2-3 goals look clearly more realistic than an open exchange resulting in at least 4 goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Lyon win at full-time: Auxerre were level at the break in 67% of their last matches, compared with 40% for Lyon. Both teams create relatively few chances before half-time, with Lyon averaging 0.4 goals and Auxerre 0.33 goals in the first 45 minutes of their last five matches. After the interval, the hosts look significantly more solid: they score an average of 1.2 goals and concede just 0.4, while Auxerre concede as many as 2.0 goals. Lyon also have the edge in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.97 compared with the opponent’s 1.28, and average 20 shots to Auxerre’s 10. The hosts’ stronger current defensive record—conceding 0.8 goals in their last five matches compared with Auxerre’s 1.8—increases the likelihood that an evenly matched opening will turn into a Lyon win in the second half.