Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Once Caldas played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Once Caldas: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Once Caldas scores 1.67 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 1.94 and concedes 0.78. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Once Caldas 83%, Atlético Nacional 39%. Over 2.5: Once Caldas 50%, Atlético Nacional 67%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.50. Once Caldas: 13.4 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.4.
Match halves
Once Caldas: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.89. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.28.
Goals by minute
Once Caldas: 76-90+ (8 goals). Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-3. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Once Caldas to win (1) due to their home offensive advantage: the hosts average 2.11 goals per home match versus Atlético Nacional’s 1.44 on the road. Once Caldas registers an average of 6 shots on target per game and has a home xG of 1.76, while the visitors average 4.78 shots on target and an away xG of 1.44, indicating higher quality chance creation by the hosts. Crucially, Once Caldas has no home games without a goal (0%), whereas Atlético fail to score in 44% of their away matches, which significantly increases the hosts’ likelihood of scoring. On the other hand, Atlético have 13 wins this season versus Once Caldas’s 7, and over the last five matches they average 2.0 points per game compared to the hosts’ 1.8; the visitors’ defense concedes 1.22 goals on the road vs. 1.44 for Once Caldas, which partially evens the contest. Considering xG (1.76 vs 1.44), average goals (2.11 vs 1.44) and the gap in clean-sheet/fail-to-score rates (0% vs 44%), I estimate the probability of a home win at ~55%, a draw at ~20% and an away win at ~25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Once Caldas at home averages 2.44 goals scored and concedes only 0.33 goals this season, with 67% of their home matches ending in a clean sheet, which strongly favors a No BTTS scenario. Atlético Nacional averages 1.44 goals scored this season and fails to score in 44% of matches, reducing the likelihood that the visitors will score at least once. Although Once Caldas have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and concede on average 0.8 goals, and Atlético Nacional recently has xG 1.9 with 7 goals in 5 games, these are short-term signals opposite to the hosts’ season-long form. Overall, the hosts’ season defensive indicators (0.33 goals conceded and 67% clean sheets) combined with the high share of matches in which the visitors do not score (44%) provide a stronger signal for No BTTS, hence the 38%/62% assessment in favor of “No”.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model combining xG and defensive profiles projects 1.62 goals for Once Caldas and 1.24 for Atlético Nacional (total 2.86). Once Caldas averages 2.44 goals per game with xG 1.98 and records 67% clean sheets, while Atlético has 1.44 goals and xG 1.44 with only 11% clean sheets; the hosts register more shots on target (7.33 vs 4.78) and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 11%). Historically Over 1.5 occurred for the home side in 89% and for the away side in 67%, while Over 2.5 appears in 67% of matches for both teams combined, although in the last 5 games the Over 2.5 rate dropped to 40% for each team. Given the aggregate xG of 2.86 and Once Caldas’s strong attacking edge, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 83%), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely on a seasonal basis (22%, I estimate 25%). Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the safest and statistically justified option; Over 2.5 is a secondary play with an estimated probability of about 68%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Once Caldas has a clear offensive and defensive advantage: the home side average 2.44 goals per match (xG 1.98) versus 1.44 goals and xG 1.44 for Atlético Nacional, and the hosts concede only 0.33 goals on average compared to 1.22 for the visitors. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (56%) and score an average of 0.89 goals by half-time, while the visitors led at the break in only 1 match (11%) and average 0.44 goals by half-time, so the HT lead signal is pronounced. Once Caldas register on average 7.33 shots on target and 19.22 total shots per game with a 13% conversion rate, versus 4.78 shots on target, 13.56 total shots and 11% conversion for the away side, indicating higher-quality chances for the hosts. After the break the hosts press as well — they scored 6 goals in the 46–60 minute window versus 1 for the visitors and have a second-half goals average of 1.56 vs 1.00 — this increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and closing out the match. Therefore I recommend the 1/1 scenario (lead at the break and home victory).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Once Caldas | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Once Caldas · 2 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Once Caldas · 1.94 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Once Caldas · 0.78 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Once Caldas scores in 94% of matches (17 of 18 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 39% (7 of 18 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Once Caldas
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Once Caldas is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Once Caldas · 1.44 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 72%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Once Caldas
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Once Caldas | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.89 | 2.50 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 53% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 27% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Atlético NacionalSubstitutionOn: Nicolás Santiago Rodríguez CalderónOff: Dairon Estibens Asprilla Rivas
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Once Caldas 0 - 1 - 3 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Once Caldas 1:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Once Caldas won 0, Atlético Nacional won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
Once Caldas score 1.67 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 1.94. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Once Caldas's matches and 39% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Once Caldas and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Once Caldas have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.