Once Caldas vs La Equidad: match statistics

I back a home win: Once Caldas averages 17 shots and 6 on target at home, scoring 2.13 goals per match, while La Equidad away manage only 11.13 shots, 3.88 on target and 1.00 goal on average. The difference in quality of created chances is supported by xG — hosts average 1.79 xG at home versus 1.21 xG for the visitors away, and a conversion rate of 13% vs 9% suggests superior finishing by Once Caldas. The hosts control the game more (59% possession vs 40%), and their home matches are more open (avg 3.63 goals per game), while both teams concede about 1.5 goals on average, which shifts the edge to the side creating more chances. A drawback for the hosts is no wins in their last five overall (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 0.8 points per match), whereas La Equidad have 1 win and 1.0 point per match in that period, slightly limiting the favourite’s edge. Considering better chance creation, efficiency and control of the pitch, I give Once Caldas approximately a 60% chance to win, 25% for a draw and 15% for an away win for La Equidad.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 63%, exceeding the league average of 55%; in the last 5 matches Once Caldas registered BTTS in 80% of games, and La Equidad in 60%, which provides a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Defensive data confirm this forecast — La Equidad concedes 1.5 goals per match seasonally versus 1.13 for Once Caldas, and in the last 5 matches the averages are 1.6 (La Equidad) and 1.4 (Once Caldas). Offensively xG also supports BTTS: Once Caldas has xG_for 1.57 against La Equidad’s xG_against 1.42 (so the home side should create chances), while La Equidad has xG_for 1.21 versus Once Caldas’s xG_against 1.23, indicating a realistic chance for the away side to score. Additionally Once Caldas averages 5.38 shots on target vs 3.88 for La Equidad and has slightly better conversion (10% vs 9%), and clean sheet rates are low: 25% for the home team and 13% for the visitors. Considering these figures (63%/63% BTTS, low CS and corroborating xG and form in the last 5 matches), I assess BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and recommend selecting "yes".

I estimate expected goals at 1.50 for Once Caldas and 1.22 for La Equidad, totaling 2.72 goals. This derives from xG: the home side has xG 1.57, while La Equidad concedes on average 1.42 xG per match (supporting ~1.50 goals for the home team); the visitors have xG 1.21 versus 1.23 xG conceded by Once Caldas (hence ~1.22 goals for the away team). A Poisson model with lambda=2.72 yields roughly a 75–76% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 51% for Over 2.5, which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 63% for the home team and 88% for the away team. Additionally, both teams record BTTS in 63% of matches, and clean sheets are rare: 25% for Once Caldas and 13% for La Equidad, further reinforcing the signal for Over 1.5.

I favor a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1). Once Caldas were level at the break in 75% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 75%), with home teams leading at half-time 0% of the time and away teams leading in 25% of cases (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 25%), which strongly favors a HT draw. After half-time the home side shows a clear advantage: they score on average 1.25 goals in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.25) and win the second half in 63% of fixtures, whereas La Equidad average only 0.25 second-half goals and have 0% second-half wins. Additionally, the home xG is 1.57 versus 1.21 for the visitors, and on-target shots 5.38 vs 3.88 corroborate Once Caldas’s greater attacking strength, so following a HT draw a turnaround by the home side is more likely than the draw holding or an away win.