One Knoxville vs Athletic Club Boise: match statistics

One Knoxville has a clear home advantage: they win 60% of their home matches, while Athletic Club Boise win only 33% of their away games and lose 44% of them. The hosts create more chances, averaging 15.5 shots and 5.7 shots on target per match, compared with Boise’s 11.22 shots and 4 on target, while their average xG stands at 1.80 versus 1.39 for the visitors. The difference is also evident defensively: One Knoxville concede 1.10 goals per home match, whereas Boise concede as many as 1.89 goals away from home and allow opponents an xG of 1.80. Both teams are in similar recent form, having each recorded 3 wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five matches, although Knoxville scored 9 goals during this period compared with Boise’s 8. The hosts’ superior chance creation, 57% possession and more consistent defensive performances all point towards a home win.

The signal for goals from both teams is clear, as the seasonal BTTS rate stands at 58% for One Knoxville and 67% for Athletic Club Boise, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of games, scoring an average of 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, while conceding 1.2 goals each. One Knoxville produces a high home xG of 1.79, while Boise has a weak away defence, conceding an average of 1.89 goals and posting an xG against of 1.80. The visitors also have an offensive argument: their last five matches produced an xG of 1.86, while the hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.63 during this period. The BTTS scenario is not certain, as One Knoxville keeps a clean sheet in 33% of matches, but the current form of both attacks and defensive vulnerability support the BTTS - Yes pick.

One Knoxville scores an average of 1.50 goals per match, while Athletic Club Boise concede as many as 1.89, clearly strengthening the outlook for home-team goals. Knoxville’s attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.79, while Boise allow opponents an average of 1.80 xG. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, while their games finished Over 2.5 goals in 60% and 80% of cases. The 1.5 line has been covered in 83% of Knoxville’s matches and 67% of Boise’s matches this season, making Over 1.5 the safest pick. The home side’s defense is more solid, conceding only 1.00 goal on average, so the projected total of 2.90 goals does not provide an equally strong edge on Over 2.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a One Knoxville win after the match, as Athletic Club Boise were level at the break in 7 of 9 fixtures, or 78% of cases, while both teams were level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches. One Knoxville have, however, held a clear advantage over the full season: they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, whereas Boise concede as many as 1.89 goals per match. The hosts also create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.79 compared with the opponents’ 1.39, as well as an average of 15.92 shots versus 11.22. The matches should open up after the break: One Knoxville average 0.75 goals in the second half, while Boise allow opponents 1.22 goals, which favours a turnaround in a balanced match towards the home side. Although Boise have won 60% of their last five matches, they have prevailed in only 33% of fixtures across the full season, compared with 58% for One Knoxville, making a home win the more likely final outcome.