Operário PR vs Ceará: match statistics

Operário PR are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Ceará have lost 2 of their 5 games during this period. At home, the hosts win 50% of their matches and average 1.43 goals, whereas Ceará win just 14% of their away fixtures, scoring only 0.86 goals per game. Operário’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.64 compared with 1.36 for the visitors, while the hosts register 4.86 shots on target per match versus Ceará’s 3.57. Ceará’s away defensive record is also a concern, as they concede an average of 1.43 goals and keep a clean sheet in just 14% of matches, whereas Operário keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home fixtures. The visitors frequently draw away from home, doing so in 36% of such matches, so a stalemate remains a realistic scenario; however, the numbers more clearly support a home win.

Operário PR has recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for Ceará, while over their last five fixtures the figures stand at 60% and as high as 80%, respectively. The hosts have recently averaged 1.8 goals per match, while Ceará have scored 1.2, and both teams have favorable underlying attacking numbers: their xG over the last five matches stands at 1.25 and 1.51, respectively. Neither defense has been particularly stable, with Ceará conceding an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances, while Operário PR allow opponents an xG of 1.98. Ceará have nevertheless experienced more frequent scoring problems across the season, failing to score in 43% of their matches, which is why the BTTS scenario does not hold a significant edge. Even so, current attacking form and the high recent rate of matches featuring goals from both sides point slightly more strongly toward the "BTTS - Yes" option.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 87% of Operário PR matches and as many as 93% of Ceará’s games. Ceará scores only 0.86 goals per match on average and fails to score in 43% of its fixtures, which limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. Operário PR has greater attacking potential, averaging 1.66 xG and 5.0 shots on target, but at least 4 goals were scored in only 13% of its matches. The teams’ last five games were slightly more open, with each side recording Over 2.5 in 60% of that sample; however, the projected total of 2.57 goals still clearly supports the 3.5 line. The Under 3.5 price also offers an edge because both teams very rarely score 3 goals on their own: Operário PR has not done so once, while Ceará reached that mark in just 7% of its matches.

Operário PR have a clear advantage in the first halves: they average 0.60 goals scored before the break and concede 0.47, while Ceará score just 0.14 and concede 0.79 goals. The hosts led at half-time in 33% of their matches, whereas Ceará have never done so, with the visitors trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 57% of games. In their last five outings, Operário remained unbeaten, averaging 1.8 goals per match and leading or drawing at half-time in all five fixtures. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in full-match data: they have a 47% win rate compared with Ceará’s 14%, while their xG stands at 1.66 against the opponents’ 1.36. The most likely scenario is therefore that Operário will capitalise on Ceará’s poor starts, take the lead before the break and go on to secure the win.