Orange County SC vs Louisville City: match statistics
Orange County SC vs Louisville City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Orange County SC played Louisville City in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 16 August 2026. Venue: Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Orange County SC: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Louisville City: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Orange County SC scores 1.53 and concedes 1.16 goals per match. Louisville City scores 1.74 and concedes 1.68. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Orange County SC 58%, Louisville City 63%. Over 2.5: Orange County SC 42%, Louisville City 53%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Louisville City has higher xG: 1.96 vs 1.15. Orange County SC: 9.9 shots per match, Louisville City: 16.4.
Match halves
Orange County SC: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.89. Louisville City: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.95.
Goals by minute
Orange County SC: 46-60 (8 goals). Louisville City: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Louisville City have significantly greater attacking potential away from home: they average 2.00 goals, 13.56 shots and 4.56 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.70. The visitors have scored in every league away fixture, while Orange County SC failed to find the net in 38% of their home matches and created just 1.07 xG on average. The hosts are more solid defensively, conceding 0.88 goals per home game and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, but their last five matches produced 9 goals conceded. Louisville have scored 12 goals in their last five league games, twice as many as Orange County’s 6, further strengthening the case for their attacking efficiency. The main risk for the visitors is their defence, which concedes an average of 2.11 goals away from home; however, their superior chance creation and scoring consistency give them a slight edge.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Louisville City has a very strong goalscoring signal, averaging 2.0 goals per game this season and as many as 2.4 in their last five matches, with an xG of 2.02. Orange County SC have conceded 1.8 goals per game over this period, while their average xG allowed to opponents has risen to 2.26, which supports the prospect of an away goal. The hosts have scored in 70% of their league matches, while Louisville’s defence has kept a clean sheet in only 22% of games and concedes an average of 2.11 goals. In addition, BTTS - Yes has landed in 78% of Louisville’s matches and in all five of their most recent fixtures, well above the league average of 53%. Orange County’s weaker recent xG of 0.95 reduces confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ defensive problems still make a BTTS - Yes scenario more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Louisville City score an average of 2.0 goals per game this season, increasing that average to 2.4 goals across their last 5 matches, while Orange County SC conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period. The hosts have a season xG of 2.20 and average 19.0 shots, while Louisville City’s defense allows an average of 2.11 goals and 1.51 xG. At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Orange County’s matches and 89% of Louisville City’s games, strongly supporting a low goal line. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases, but the 1.5 line offers a greater margin for safety than the more demanding 2.5. The projected total of 3.40 goals is based on the visitors’ attacking form and the hosts’ recent defensive weaknesses, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Orange County SC win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches, compared with 67% for Louisville City. In their last five games, Orange County conceded just 0.2 goals per match before the break, while the visitors, despite averaging 1.4 goals scored in the first half, often failed to establish a lead. After the interval, the hosts won 50% of their second halves, whereas Louisville conceded an average of 1.33 goals during them. Orange County’s advantage in the quality of chances created is also clear: their average xG stands at 2.20 compared with the opponents’ 1.70, while defensive xG is 0.98 against 1.51 for Louisville. The case for a home win is further supported by the full-season record: Orange County won 50% of their matches, while Louisville lost 44%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Orange County SC | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Orange County SC is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Orange County SC · 1.4 pts / match - Louisville City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Louisville City is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Orange County SC · 1.74 goals / match - Louisville City
Orange County SC is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.16 goals / match - Orange County SC · 1.68 goals / match - Louisville City
Orange County SC scores in 84% of matches (16 of 19 matches), while Louisville City keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
Louisville City scores in 84% of matches (16 of 19 matches), while Orange County SC keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Orange County SC
Over / Under - Louisville City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Orange County SC is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.37 pts / match - Orange County SC · 1.11 pts / match - Louisville City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Orange County SC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Louisville City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Orange County SC
Louisville City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Orange County SC | Liga | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.69 | ▲ 3.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 53% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 48% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 28% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 68% | 65% | ▲ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 78% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Orange County SC 0 - 1 - 1 Louisville City. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
The USL Championship match finished Orange County SC 2:3 Louisville City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Orange County SC and Louisville City?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Orange County SC won 0, Louisville City won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Orange County SC score 1.53 goals per game on average and Louisville City 1.74. The USL Championship average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Orange County SC's matches and 63% of Louisville City's.
What form are Orange County SC and Louisville City in?
Over the last 5 games Orange County SC have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Louisville City 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.