Orange County SC vs Tulsa Roughnecks: match statistics

Orange County SC sit 2nd, while Tulsa are 11th, and over the course of the season the hosts have scored 31 goals compared to just 20 for the visitors. However, the home advantage is moderate: Orange County win 44% of their home matches and average 1.22 goals, compared to Tulsa’s 1.13 goals per away game. The hosts are in poorer form, having lost three of their last five matches and conceded 10 goals, but Tulsa have scored just 2 goals during that period, significantly limiting their attacking potential. The visitors create chances worth an average of 1.35 xG away from home, higher than Orange County’s 1.13 xG at home, but they fail to convert this into goals and draw a blank in 38% of their away fixtures. Their superior league position, greater season-long goal production and slightly more reliable home defence—conceding 1.11 goals per match compared to Tulsa’s 1.38 away from home—all point towards a narrow Orange County victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Orange County saw both teams score in only 27% of their matches this season, well below the league average of 53%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 55% of their games and concede just 0.64 goals on average, limiting Tulsa’s chances of scoring. Tulsa have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, and none of those matches ended with both teams scoring. Although Orange County conceded an average of 2.0 goals during this period, the visitors’ attack also remains weak over the season, as they have failed to score in 38% of their outings. A No Goal scenario for one of the sides is therefore more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 91% of Orange County matches and 75% of Tulsa’s games. The hosts concede just 0.64 goals per match this season and have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their appearances, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. Tulsa averages 1.13 goals, but has scored only 2 goals in its last five matches—0.4 per game—and has not had a single match with more than 2.5 goals. The teams’ average xG figures suggest a more measured scenario, at approximately 1.24 for the hosts and 1.35 for the visitors, while the projected total of 2.20 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line. Orange County’s recent matches have been more open, averaging 3.2 goals, but the high success rate of Under 3.5 across the season gives the edge to the Under 3.5 bet.

The strongest signal points to a cautious first half: Orange County were level at half-time in 7 of 11 matches, while Tulsa were level in 3 of 8, with the hosts conceding just 0.09 goals per game before the break. In their last five appearances, Tulsa kept a clean sheet at half-time in all five matches and scored an average of just 0.2 goals in that period, further strengthening the Half-Time/Full-Time draw option. The hosts do have the better defensive record over the season as a whole, conceding an average of 0.64 goals compared with 1.38 for the visitors, but their recent run has seen them concede as many as 2.0 goals per game. In their last five matches, Tulsa allowed opponents just 0.4 goals per game, while their own scoring average stood at 0.4. Therefore, after an evenly matched start, the most likely outcome remains a draw at full-time as well (X/X).