Ordabasy vs Altay: match statistics

Ordabasy are league leaders and have won 15 of their 21 matches this season, while Altay sit 16th with just 3 victories. The hosts win 82% of their home matches, average 1.91 goals per game and are yet to lose at home, whereas Altay score just 0.8 goals away from home and lose 60% of their away fixtures. Ordabasy’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 2.16 compared with the opponents’ 1.29, while the hosts boast a significantly stronger defence, conceding just 0.64 goals per match. The form over the last five rounds further favours the hosts, who have won 4 times and conceded 4 goals, whereas Altay have collected only 1 point, losing four matches and allowing 17 goals. The visitors may struggle to break down Ordabasy’s defence, which keeps a clean sheet in 45% of home matches, making a convincing home win the most likely outcome.

Ordabasy are clear favourites to score, having averaged 2.6 goals across their last 5 matches, while Altay conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game over the same period. However, the key concern for BTTS is the visitors’ finishing: they average only 0.80 goals per match across the season and have failed to score in 30% of their games. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, and their recent defensive form looks particularly solid, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded and just 0.69 xG allowed. Altay do have a 100% record of matches featuring goals for both teams across their last 5 games and are currently generating 1.43 xG, but this is also a consequence of their very poor defence rather than guaranteed attacking consistency. With a strong chance of an Ordabasy goal and a realistic risk that Altay will fail to score, BTTS - No is slightly more likely.

Ordabasy are in very strong attacking form: they have averaged 2.6 goals over their last 5 matches, with an xG of 1.92, while Altay have conceded as many as 3.4 goals per game over the same period. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 13 goals in total, whereas the visitors are on a four-match losing streak with just one draw. In Ordabasy’s last 5 matches, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% of cases, and in Altay’s matches in 100%, strengthening the scenario of at least two goals being scored. Seasonal averages are more conservative, but Altay’s weak defence, which keeps a clean sheet in only 10% of matches, clearly increases the hosts’ goalscoring potential. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as Ordabasy’s current form and attacking advantage give a high probability of surpassing this safer line.

The strongest signal points to Ordabasy leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Altay have lost 4 of 5 and have not recorded a single victory during that period. In their last five matches, Ordabasy were ahead at half-time in 80% of cases, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before the break and conceding just 0.4, whereas Altay were trailing at half-time in all 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals in those first halves. The hosts’ advantage is also evident after the interval: in their last five appearances, they scored an average of 1.4 goals in the second half, while Altay’s opponents conceded as many as 3.4 goals per match on average. The teams’ seasonal xG figures are similar—1.34 for Ordabasy compared with 1.29 for Altay—but Altay have a significantly weaker defence, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in just 10% of their games. Although Ordabasy have frequently been level at half-time across the broader sample, doing so in 64% of matches, the current form of both teams clearly strengthens the 1/1 scenario.