Ordabasy vs Ulytau: match statistics
Ordabasy vs Ulytau: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ordabasy played Ulytau in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 5 July 2026. Venue: Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ordabasy: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Ulytau: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ordabasy scores 1.80 and concedes 0.60 goals per match. Ulytau scores 0.87 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ordabasy 53%, Ulytau 47%. Over 2.5: Ordabasy 47%, Ulytau 33%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Ordabasy has higher xG: 1.93 vs 1.34. Ordabasy: 17.0 shots per match, Ulytau: 11.7.
Match halves
Ordabasy: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.13. Ulytau: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
Ordabasy: 76-90+ (10 goals). Ulytau: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.27 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ordabasy is the clear favorite: at home they have scored 27 goals this season (avg. 1.88 goals per home match) and have 11 goals in the last 5 matches, while Ulytau has 13 goals in the entire season and only 3 in their last five. The quality of chances favors the hosts — Ordabasy averages 19.75 shots and 7.25 shots on target per home match with an average xG of 2.19, whereas Ulytau averages 11.43 shots, 2.57 on target and xG 1.24 on the road. Defensively the hosts are superior as well: Ordabasy concedes 0.75 goals per home match (xG against 0.94), while the visitors allow 1.29 goals on the road (xG against 1.48) and have a negative goal difference of -5 away. Form further supports Ordabasy — 5 wins in the last 5 matches and an average of 3 points per match in that period versus 1 point for Ulytau; the visitors failed to score in 57% of away games, while the hosts have 0% home matches without a goal. Given these differences in finishing (11 goals vs 3 in the last 5), chance quality (xG 2.19 vs 1.24) and defensive stability, I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis leads me to select “No” — Ulytau failed to score in 57% of matches, which is the strongest signal against BTTS. Ordabasy score at home at 1.13 goals per match (xG 1.42), have 38% clean sheets and have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 avg) while conceding only 2 (0.4 avg), so they often finish matches with a clean sheet. Ulytau have xG 1.24 and a season average of 0.57 goals per match, but a low shot conversion of 5% and only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 avg), which limits their scoring chances. Historically BTTS is 50% for Ordabasy and 43% for Ulytau versus a league average of 51%, but a simple estimate (87% chance Ordabasy will score × 43% chance Ulytau will score) gives ~37% for BTTS, therefore I propose 37% for “yes” and 63% for “no” and recommend the “No” bet as the stronger signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The aggregated xG analysis yields 1.45 xG for Ordabasy (1.42 xG for the home attack vs 1.48 xG conceded by Ulytau) and 1.29 xG for Ulytau (1.24 xG for the attack vs 1.34 xG conceded by Ordabasy), giving a combined expected total of 2.74 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.74 indicates roughly a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals, 52% for Over 2.5 and 29% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Ordabasy have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game), average 4.5 shots on target per game versus 2.57 for the visitors and a better shot conversion rate 9% vs 5%, which increases the likelihood of home goals. Seasonal metrics confirm the trend: hosts had 100% of matches with at least one goal, visitors 71%, and the percentage of matches Over 2.5 is 25% (hosts) vs 43% (guests), hence Over 1.5 appears the most value-driven choice.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ordabasy are clear favorites: they average 2.13 points per home match versus 0.86 for Ulytau, and the hosts win 63% of games compared to 14% for the visitors. In their last five matches Ordabasy have a run of five wins (5/5) and led at the break in 3 of 5 fixtures (60%), averaging 1.0 goals scored by half-time. Offensive metrics and xG confirm the home advantage: xG 1.42 versus 1.24, on average 4.5 shots on target vs 2.57 and seasonally 1.13 goals scored compared to Ulytau’s 0.57. At the same time, seasonally the hosts are drawing at half-time in 50% of matches, so a Half-Time draw followed by an Ordabasy turnaround to win (X/1) also carries significant probability alongside a direct lead at the break. Overall the strongest signal is Ordabasy leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1), hence the highest forecast for that outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ordabasy | Ulytau | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ordabasy is 200% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Ordabasy · 1 pts / match - Ulytau
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ordabasy is 107% better for: goals scored per match.
1.8 goals / match - Ordabasy · 0.87 goals / match - Ulytau
Ordabasy is 55% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.6 goals / match - Ordabasy · 0.93 goals / match - Ulytau
Ordabasy scores in 93% of matches (14 of 15 matches), while Ulytau keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 matches).
Ulytau scores in 67% of matches (10 of 15 matches), while Ordabasy keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ordabasy
Over / Under - Ulytau
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ordabasy is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Ordabasy · 1.13 pts / match - Ulytau
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ordabasy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 73%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ulytau - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ordabasy
Ulytau
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Ordabasy | Liga | Ulytau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.40 | 2.27 | ▼ 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 51% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 47% | 42% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 30% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 61% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 73% | 70% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Ordabasy 1 - 0 - 2 Ulytau. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ordabasy vs Ulytau?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Ordabasy 1:0 Ulytau. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ordabasy and Ulytau?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Ordabasy won 1, Ulytau won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ordabasy vs Ulytau?
Ordabasy score 1.80 goals per game on average and Ulytau 0.87. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Ordabasy's matches and 47% of Ulytau's.
What form are Ordabasy and Ulytau in?
Over the last 5 games Ordabasy have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Ulytau 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ordabasy vs Ulytau?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ordabasy vs Ulytau: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.