Orlando City II vs Carolina Core: match statistics
Orlando City II vs Carolina Core: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Orlando City II played Carolina Core in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 7 June 2026. Venue: Inter&Co Stadium. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Orlando City II: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Carolina Core: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Orlando City II scores 2.42 and concedes 1.83 goals per match. Carolina Core scores 1.08 and concedes 1.83. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Orlando City II 83%, Carolina Core 75%. Over 2.5: Orlando City II 83%, Carolina Core 67%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Orlando City II has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.38. Orlando City II: 15.6 shots per match, Carolina Core: 11.8.
Match halves
Orlando City II: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.50. Carolina Core: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Orlando City II: 76-90+ (8 goals). Carolina Core: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-2-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 80%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Orlando City II are the clear favorites: at home they average 2.86 goals per game, register 8.57 shots on target (17.71 total shots) and have a 16% conversion rate, whereas Carolina Core away average just 0.67 goals, 3.67 shots on target and roughly a 7% conversion. In the last 5 matches Orlando scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and averaged 2 points per match, while Carolina have 4 goals in five games (0.8 per game) and only 0.8 points per match. The visitors have yet to win on the road (0% wins), have 50% of away games without scoring and lose 67% of their away matches, which contrasts with the hosts’ home record (43% wins, 0% goalless games). Orlando also have a higher home xG (2.08) than the visitors’ away xG (1.23), indicating better quality of chances created despite both teams conceding a lot (2.14 for the hosts vs 2.00 for the visitors away). Given the edge in efficiency, shot volume and form over the last 5 matches, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Orlando City II has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100%, while Carolina Core sit at 50%; both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, which strongly favors a Goal/Goal scenario. In the league BTTS occurs in 62% of fixtures, Orlando have no clean sheets (0%) and Carolina keep a clean sheet in 17% of matches, so the hosts routinely concede. Orlando average 1.5 goals on the season and 2.6 in the last 5 games with xG_for 1.54, while Carolina concede xG 1.93 and 2.0 goals per match; Carolina score an average of 0.67 goals away (xG_for 1.23), showing low finishing but an ability to create chances. Additionally Orlando average 13.5 shots (4.5 on target) with an 11% conversion, and Carolina 10.0 shots (3.67 on target) with a 7% conversion, so both sides generate opportunities and defenses concede significant xG (Orlando xG_against 1.73). Given these figures, I assess BTTS probability at 75% vs 25% and recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I project 1.74 expected goals for Orlando City II (xG_for 1.54 vs xG_conceded 1.93 for Carolina) and 1.48 for Carolina Core, yielding a total of 3.22 goals. Orlando averages 13.5 shots and 4.5 on target with an 11% conversion, while Carolina has 10.0 shots, 3.67 on target and a 7% conversion, giving the hosts an offensive edge. This season both teams have 67% of matches over 2.5, Orlando has 100% of matches over 1.5, and the league records 65% of matches over 2.5, all supporting a goals-heavy scenario. A Poisson model with mean 3.22 gives ~83% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~62% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and only ~40% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest data signal is a play on Over 1.5 — the high expected total of 3.22, Orlando’s 100% season rate >1.5 and the model’s ~83% probability favor this side.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win at Full-Time) as the most likely scenario: Orlando City II have averaged 2.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches versus 0.8 for Carolina Core and have won 60% of those fixtures compared to 20% for their opponents. The first half should be balanced — season data show draws at the break in 33% of matches for both teams, and first-half goals averages over the last 5 games are 1.6 for the hosts versus 1.2 for the visitors, favoring a tight or drawn HT. Strong signal for the home side after the break: Orlando have scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 this season while Carolina have only 1, and the hosts’ second-half goal average in the last 5 matches is 1.6 versus 0.6 for the opposition; the home side have won the second half in 60% of those games. Additionally, superiority in xG and shots (xG 1.54 vs 1.23, average 13.5 shots and 4.5 on target for the hosts versus 10 and 3.67 for the visitors) and higher conversion rate (11% vs 7%) increase the likelihood that Orlando will decide the match after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Orlando City II | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Orlando City II is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Orlando City II · 0.8 pts / match - Carolina Core
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Orlando City II is 124% better for: goals scored per match.
2.42 goals / match - Orlando City II · 1.08 goals / match - Carolina Core
Orlando City II scores in 92% of matches (11 of 12 matches), while Carolina Core keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
Carolina Core scores in 75% of matches (9 of 12 matches), while Orlando City II keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Orlando City II
Over / Under - Carolina Core
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Orlando City II is 72% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Orlando City II · 0.58 pts / match - Carolina Core
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Orlando City II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carolina Core - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 8%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Orlando City II
Carolina Core
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Orlando City II | Liga | Carolina Core | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.25 | 3.20 | ▼ 2.92 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 83% | 61% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 83% | 65% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 22% | ▼ 8% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 92% | 76% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 83% | • 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Orlando City II 2 - 2 - 1 Carolina Core. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Orlando City II vs Carolina Core?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Orlando City II 3:2 Carolina Core. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Orlando City II and Carolina Core?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Orlando City II won 2, Carolina Core won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Orlando City II vs Carolina Core?
Orlando City II score 2.42 goals per game on average and Carolina Core 1.08. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 83% of Orlando City II's matches and 75% of Carolina Core's.
What form are Orlando City II and Carolina Core in?
Over the last 5 games Orlando City II have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Carolina Core 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Orlando City II vs Carolina Core?
The statistical background for Orlando City II vs Carolina Core — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.