Orléans vs Rouen: match statistics

Orléans sit 4th, while Rouen are 11th, and the hosts also have the better record over their last five matches: 7 points to 5. The Orléans side scored 6 goals during this period, 2 more than Rouen, with both teams conceding an identical 6 goals. The hosts won 2 of their last five matches, compared with just 1 for the visitors, while Rouen recorded as many as 2 draws, which also increases the likelihood of a closely contested encounter. In the current season, Orléans opened their home campaign with a 2:0 victory, whereas Rouen failed to score in their first match and drew. The league-position advantage, slightly greater attacking efficiency in the recent run, and home advantage all point towards an Orléans win, although the difference in form is not substantial enough to rule out a draw.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as Orléans recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches, while the league as a whole has seen both teams score in just 22% of fixtures. The hosts have averaged 1.2 goals recently, compared with only 0.8 for Rouen, increasing the risk that the visitors will fail to convert their chances. However, Rouen’s BTTS rate stands at 60% across their last five appearances, and both teams have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match, so a Goal/Goal scenario remains realistic. The xG over the last five matches is 1.45 for Orléans and 1.39 for Rouen, but the visitors’ lower finishing efficiency and the very low league trend provide stronger support for BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score.

Orléans’s last five matches produced an average of 2.4 total goals, while Rouen’s matches averaged 2.0 goals, pointing to a fairly moderate scoring tempo. For both teams, only 40% of their last five matches went over 2.5 goals, making results with at least four goals even less frequent. The xG potential created is similar: Orléans records 1.45 with 1.25 conceded, while Rouen records 1.39 with 1.22 conceded, resulting in a forecast of around 2.45 goals. The home side have recently scored 1.2 goals per match, while the visitors have scored 0.8, despite both defenses conceding 1.2 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as even with relatively balanced chances, the data more often supports a two- or three-goal scenario than an open, high-scoring game with four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Orléans win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 such instances for Rouen. Orléans have clearly performed better in the first half, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Rouen have failed to score before half-time and conceded an average of 0.6 goals. Across their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals compared with Rouen’s 0.8 and won 40% of their games, while the visitors won only 20%. However, Rouen could improve after the break, having averaged 0.8 goals in second halves and recorded a positive goal difference of +1; therefore, HT/FT scenarios involving a final draw or a turnaround resulting in an away win retain a significant share.