Ostia Mare Lidocalcio vs Forlì: match statistics

Both teams have clear problems when it comes to winning in this matchup: Ostia Mare have lost every home game, while Forlì have failed to win any away fixture, drawing 67% of them. The hosts score just 0.5 goals per match at home and fail to find the net in as many as 50% of their appearances, although their average xG of 1.46 is higher than Forlì’s away xG of 0.92. The visitors are more effective in terms of goals scored, averaging 1 goal away from home, but they manage just 6.67 shots per match and have scored only 5 goals in their last five games. Neither defence inspires complete confidence, with Ostia conceding an average of 1.5 goals at home and Forlì 1.67 away, while neither side has kept a clean sheet. Given their similarly poor form over the last five matches, yielding 1.2 and 1 point per game respectively, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: BTTS - Yes occurred in 100% of Ostia Mare’s matches to date and in 67% of Forlì’s games, compared with the league average of 56%. Over the last five matches, these figures stand at 60% and 80%, respectively, while both teams have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. Ostia Mare have very strong attacking potential at home, averaging 3.0 goals, with an xG of 1.93 and 5.33 shots on target, while Forlì allow opponents an xG of 1.96. The visitors score only 1.0 goal on average, but the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match and have allowed opponents an xG of 1.90 over their last five games, increasing the likelihood of them scoring. Therefore, the most probable scenario is BTTS - Yes, although Forlì’s weaker attacking efficiency limits confidence in this market.

Ostia Mare create plenty of chances at home: averaging 16.67 shots, 5.33 shots on target and 1.93 xG, while Forlì allow opponents an average of 1.96 xG. The hosts have scored an average of 3.0 goals in home matches, and both teams have conceded in 100% of their matches played under these conditions so far. In their last five appearances, each team has scored and conceded an average of 1.4 goals, which still points to a result featuring at least two goals. The 2.5 line has moderate support, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 60% of Ostia's and 40% of Forlì's last five matches, but the safer signal is Over 1.5. This selection is further supported by the fact that both teams have surpassed 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far this season.

Ostia Mare Lidocalcio have a clear attacking-quality advantage: their average xG is 1.93 compared with Forlì’s 0.92, while the hosts average 16.67 shots and 5.33 on target, compared with just 6.67 and 3.0 for the visitors. In their matches at home so far, the hosts have scored an average of 3.0 goals and won 67% of their games, whereas Forlì have not won any away match and have scored only 1.0 goal per game. Before half-time, Ostia were already averaging 1.33 goals, while Forlì were conceding 1.33; in their last five appearances, the visitors have not led at the break on any occasion and have been level at half-time in 60% of cases. The strongest argument for Ostia maintaining their lead is the second half: they have averaged 1.67 goals after the interval and won all three such periods, while Forlì have scored just 0.33 goals in the second half. The scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and secure a full-time victory is therefore most consistent with the teams’ superiority in chance creation, efficiency, and performances across both halves.