Ostia Mare Lidocalcio vs Ravenna: match statistics

Ravenna come into this match in better current form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, winning 2 and drawing 2, while Ostia Mare have managed just 4 points. The visitors have scored 9 goals in this period compared with 4 for the hosts, while their average away xG stands at 1.59, against the very high 2.68 xG allowed by Ostia Mare at home. The hosts’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2 goals per home game and yet to keep a clean sheet. Ravenna concede just 0.5 goals per away match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games, although both of their away fixtures so far have ended in draws. The visitors’ edge in chance creation and recent finishing efficiency gives them a slightly better chance of winning, but their strong tendency to draw limits confidence in this selection.

The signal for both teams to score is supported by their recent results: BTTS occurred in 60% of Ostia Mare’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Ravenna’s games. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Ravenna conceded 1.6, with their average xG against standing at 1.64 and 1.40, respectively. Ravenna is in a strong position to score, having recently averaged 1.8 goals per match, while Ostia Mare have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season. The main risk to BTTS is the hosts’ weaker attacking efficiency, as they scored only 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches; however, Ravenna conceded 8 goals in 5 appearances during this period. Therefore, the more likely outcome is BTTS - Yes, with each team expected to score at least once.

The latest form of both teams points to a goal-filled match: Ostia Mare averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in their last five matches, while Ravenna scored 1.8 and allowed opponents 1.6 goals. Ravenna generated an average of 1.57 xG, while the hosts’ defense allowed opponents 1.64 xG, strongly supporting at least one away goal. In the last five matches involving both teams, Over 2.5 goals landed 60% of the time, although caution with higher lines is warranted given the projected total of 2.90 goals. Over 1.5 offers the greatest edge, as the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in the seasonal data, while 80% of Ravenna’s recent matches featured goals from both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ostia Mare win after the final whistle, although the full-season data is based on a very small sample. In their last five matches, the hosts were level at the break in 60% of games and failed to score before half-time, while Ravenna also drew at half-time in 60% of such cases. After the interval, however, Ostia Mare concede an average of 1.2 goals while scoring 0.8, so the hosts’ advantage is not clear-cut. Nevertheless, the X/1 pick is supported by the hosts’ greater potential on home soil: in the season data, they won 100% of their matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while Ravenna have not won any away game. Ravenna are in better current form, averaging 1.6 points per match in their last five appearances compared with Ostia’s 0.8, which primarily increases the likelihood of draw and away-win scenarios.