Oued Akbou vs CR Belouizdad: match statistics

Prediction: draw — both teams show very similar defensive profiles: Oued Akbou concedes on average 0.69 goals per home match, while CR Belouizdad concedes 0.6 away, with seasonal goals conceded 28 vs 18 respectively. Offensively the visitors are marginally more dangerous: average xG for CR Belouizdad away is 1.63 vs 1.47 for Oued Akbou at home, and shots on target 5.7 vs 4.62, which translates into 7 goals for the visitors in the last 5 matches vs 4 goals for the hosts. However, the home side have a strong home record — 69% home wins, on average 1.31 goals scored per home match and 46% of matches with a clean sheet — so they are hard to write off at home. Form over the last 5 matches favors the visitors (CR Belouizdad averaging 1.4 points in the last 5 vs 1.0 for Oued Akbou), therefore I expect a balanced, low-scoring contest. Considering the visitors’ advantage in quality of chances and the hosts’ solid home metrics, estimated probabilities are about 35% for the home win, 40% for a draw and 25% for the away win.

I predict BTTS - Yes as more likely given both teams' recent form: in the last 5 matches both sides show BTTS at 60% (60% and 60%), and seasonal rates are 54% for Oued Akbou and 50% for CR Belouizdad. xG and shot data support the pick — hosts have xG 1.82 and 6.62 shots on target on average, visitors xG 1.63 and 5.7 such shots, while xG against is 1.17 for CR Belouizdad and 0.92 for Oued, indicating both teams create scoring opportunities. Counter-signals include the visitors' high seasonal clean sheet rate of 50% and their season average goals conceded of 0.6, which theoretically reduces BTTS likelihood. However, in the last 5 matches the visitors concede 1.2 goals on average and the hosts 1.0, and the xG differentials for both sides lead me to assess BTTS as more probable (62% vs 38%), therefore I recommend Yes.

Average xG for both sides suggests about 1.50 goals for Oued Akbou and 1.28 for CR Belouizdad (home xG attack 1.82 vs away xG defense 1.17; away xG attack 1.63 vs home xG defense 0.92), giving a total around 2.78. A Poisson model at this total prices the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) at ~77%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) at ≈53% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) at ≈30%. Seasonal figures confirm a tendency for goals: Oued at home records 62% of matches over 2.5 goals, CR Belouizdad away only 20%, while both teams have high shares of matches with at least one goal (85% and 90%) and BTTS occurrences of 54% and 50%. In the last 5 matches Oued’s attacking form has dropped (avg 0.88 xG and 0.8 goals) whereas CR Belouizdad has 1.49 xG and 1.4 goals, which partially offsets the home advantage but does not eliminate the potential for 2+ goals. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (Over 1.5 ≈77%, expected 2.78 goals), while the 2.5 line is closer to a break-even risk/reward (~53%/47%).

I expect a draw at half-time: the home side has been level at the break in 62% of matches and the visitors in 60%, with half-time goals averaging 1.0 for Oued Akbou versus 0.5 for CR Belouizdad (19 first-half goals vs 7). After the interval the hosts are favored — Oued Akbou wins 54% of home matches, posts a higher season goals-per-game (1.92 vs 1.30) and a superior xG (1.82 vs 1.63), indicating better quality of created chances. The home team also scores more frequently after the break: their second-half goals-per-game at home is 1.38 versus 1.20 for the visitors, and they have scored 5 and 6 goals in minutes 61–75 and 76–90 respectively, which increases the chance of a turnaround after half-time. The visitors, however, have solid away defensive figures (conceding 0.6 goals per away match on average and keeping clean sheets in 50% of away games), so the X/1 HT/FT market (draw at Half-Time, home win at Full-Time) carries the strongest signal, with notable contributions from the 1/1 and X/X scenarios.