Oulu vs TPS: match statistics
Oulu vs TPS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Oulu played TPS in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Oulu: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. TPS: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Oulu scores 1.71 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. TPS scores 1.50 and concedes 0.83. League average: 2.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Oulu 43%, TPS 67%. Over 2.5: Oulu 43%, TPS 33%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
TPS has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.33. Oulu: 11.7 shots per match, TPS: 11.3.
Match halves
Oulu: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.00. TPS: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Oulu: 61-75 (5 goals). TPS: 46-60 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.27 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Oulu has won 100% of home matches and kept 100% clean sheets, not conceding a single goal at home (0 conceded on average), while scoring 1.5 goals per game on average, with xG 1.2 and 4 shots on target per match. TPS have not lost any away game, but also have not won — 0 wins and 100% draws — scoring 1.5 goals on average with xG 1.66, 13.5 shots and 5 shots on target. Oulu’s main advantage is a compact home defense (0 goals conceded), whereas TPS’s strength is generating more chances and a higher xG (1.66 vs 1.2), giving the visitors a realistic chance to break through. TPS still concedes 1.5 goals on average away, and Oulu has a higher shot conversion at home (15% vs 11%), so I predict a draw as the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes is that TPS has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100%, while Oulu has 50% for the season and only 40% in the last 5 matches, which together support the possibility of both teams scoring. Oulu’s defense has looked weaker in recent weeks: seasonally they concede 0.5 goals per game, but in the last 5 matches they average 1.2 goals conceded and their xG against is 1.60, suggesting greater vulnerability than the seasonal average indicates. TPS on the road generates xG 1.66 and in the last 5 matches scores an average 1.6 goals, with an average of 13.5 shots and 5.0 shots on target, so they have realistic outputs to find a way past Oulu’s goal. In league context, the overall BTTS rate is 47% with an average 2.18 goals per game, but an additional risk signal is that Oulu has 50% clean sheets at home this season, which limits confidence in the forecast. In summary: due to TPS’s 100% BTTS, the visitors’ 1.66 offensive xG and Oulu’s increase to 1.2 average goals conceded in the last 5 matches, I assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) versus 25% (No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model values expected goals at 1.21 for Oulu and 1.63 for TPS, totaling 2.84 goals — above the league average of 2.18. Seasonal data shows Over 1.5 occurred in 75% of Oulu’s matches and 100% of TPS’s matches, while BTTS is 100% for TPS and 50% for Oulu, which further supports a minimum two-goal scenario. TPS generates more xG (1.66 vs 1.31) and more shots (13.5 vs 10.25), although their conversion rate is lower (11% vs 15%), indicating continued chance creation. Based on total xG=2.84 our model estimates ~78% probability for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5; the strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5. I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the safest line, combining high xG, seasonal Over 1.5 rates (75%/100%) and TPS’s BTTS tendency.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Oulu has a clear halftime edge: they led at the break in 50% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 50.0) and accumulated 8 points in first halves versus 1 point for TPS (HTPoints_home = 8.0 vs HTPoints_away = 1.0). The home side virtually never conceded before the break (concededAVGHT_home = 0.0, seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 100.0), while TPS concedes on average 1.0 goals by halftime and is trailing at the break in 50% of cases (concededAVGHT_away = 1.0, trailingAtHTPercentage_away = 50.0). TPS records higher xG (1.66 vs 1.31) and more shots (13.5 vs 10.25), but this does not translate into away wins — Oulu wins 75% of home matches and averages 2.5 points per home game (winPercentage_home = 75.0, seasonPPG_home = 2.5), whereas TPS has 0% wins away (winPercentage_away = 0.0). Oulu also tends to score immediately after the break (3 goals in 46–60 min.), while TPS scores more often late (2 goals in 76–90), which increases the probability that the home side’s lead at the break will be maintained to full-time — hence 1/1 is selected as the strongest scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Oulu | TPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
TPS is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Oulu · 2.2 pts / match - TPS
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Oulu is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.71 goals / match - Oulu · 1.5 goals / match - TPS
TPS is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Oulu · 0.83 goals / match - TPS
Oulu scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while TPS keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
TPS scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Oulu keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Oulu
Over / Under - TPS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Oulu is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - Oulu · 1.5 pts / match - TPS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Oulu - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
TPS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Oulu
TPS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Oulu | Liga | TPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.27 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 43% | 34% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 73% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Oulu vs TPS?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Oulu 1:0 TPS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Oulu vs TPS?
Oulu score 1.71 goals per game on average and TPS 1.50. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Oulu's matches and 67% of TPS's.
What form are Oulu and TPS in?
Over the last 5 games Oulu have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and TPS 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Oulu vs TPS?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Oulu vs TPS: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.