Paços de Ferreira vs Varzim: match statistics

Varzim sit 2nd and have won both of their matches so far this season, while Paços de Ferreira have suffered 2 defeats. Away from home, the visitors average 1 goal scored, have yet to concede, and 100% of their matches have ended with a clean sheet. Paços have failed to score at home, lost their only match, and have a clearly inferior chance-quality profile, with average xG of 1.21 compared to 1.91 xG against. Varzim create more chances, averaging 12 shots and 5 on target compared to the hosts’ 9 and 4, while also controlling 60% of possession versus Paços’ 42%. The five-match form also favors the visitors, who have averaged 1.4 points per game compared to the hosts’ 0.8, making an away win the most likely outcome.

Recent form points to a scenario with goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 80% of Paços de Ferreira’s last five matches and in 60% of Varzim’s games. During this period, Paços conceded an average of 1.4 goals, with an opposition xG of 1.75, while Varzim conceded 1.2 goals per match and allowed opponents 1.32 xG. The visitors are particularly active in attack, averaging 12 shots and 5 on target, with a seasonal xG of 1.70 compared to the hosts’ 0.87 xG against. The main argument against BTTS - Yes is Varzim’s highly solid seasonal defence, which has not conceded a goal yet and has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its matches, meaning the edge for BTTS remains moderate. Nevertheless, the recent defensive results of both teams and the visitors’ high goal-scoring potential slightly favour a goal for each side.

The last five meetings involving both teams present a moderately goal-oriented picture: Paços de Ferreira averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Varzim scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2. At the same time, the average xG from this period points to a balanced match, with the hosts creating chances worth 1.72 xG and the visitors 1.21 xG. 60% of each team’s last five matches finished Over 2.5 goals, but neither side has demonstrated a consistent pattern of games featuring at least four goals. Additionally, the league-wide average is just 1.95 goals per match, and only 30% of fixtures exceed the 2.5-goal line. The projected total of 2.48 goals provides the greatest margin of safety on the Under 3.5 goals side.

Varzim have a clearly superior first-half profile in their last five matches: they were leading at the break in 60% of games, while Paços de Ferreira failed to lead at half-time on every occasion and were behind after 45 minutes in 40% of cases. The visitors averaged 1.0 goals before the break, compared with just 0.2 for the hosts, with respective first-half goal differences of +3 and -2. Varzim’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.70 versus 0.88 for Paços, while shots on target stand at 5.0 to 3.0. Across their last five matches, Varzim won 40% of games and averaged 1.2 goals, whereas the hosts won only 20% and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The most likely scenario is therefore that the visitors will capitalise on their advantage before half-time and maintain their lead until the final whistle.