Paderborn vs Freiburg: match statistics

Freiburg come into this match on an outstanding run of five consecutive victories, while Paderborn have won just 2 of their last five fixtures and drawn three. The visitors have scored 18 goals during this period, averaging 3.6 per match—significantly more than Paderborn’s 10 goals, with the hosts averaging 2.0 goals per game. The defensive record is equally important: Freiburg have conceded just 4 goals in their last five matches, compared with 6 for the home side. In the current campaign, Freiburg opened with a 4:1 victory, whereas Paderborn drew their opening fixture 0:0. The visitors’ superior current form, perfect winning streak and higher league position—fourth compared with ninth—point to Freiburg having the greater chance of victory.

The case for both sides to score is driven primarily by their recent form: Paderborn recorded BTTS in 60% of their previous 5 matches, while Freiburg did so in as many as 80%. Freiburg are in excellent offensive form, averaging 3.6 goals with an xG of 2.45 across their last five games, while Paderborn conceded 1.2 goals per match over this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.12. The hosts also have a solid basis for finding the net, having scored an average of 2.0 goals per match, with their xG standing at 1.48. Freiburg conceded just 0.8 goals per game and their average xG against is 0.63, which reduces confidence in the pick; however, Paderborn’s offensive potential and the visitors’ high BTTS rate point more strongly towards a scenario in which both teams score.

Paderborn have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last 5 matches, while Freiburg have been scoring as many as 3.6 goals per game and conceding just 0.8. The visitors’ attacking potential is further underlined by an average xG of 2.45 across their last five appearances, clearly higher than the 1.12 xG conceded by Paderborn during the same period. Matches featuring at least three goals occurred in 60% of the hosts’ last five games and in 80% of Freiburg’s, while both teams scored in 60% and 80% of those matches, respectively. In addition, the league has a highly goal-heavy profile: the average is 3.89 goals per game, and 78% of matches go over the 2.5-goal line. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 3.36 goals and the high efficiency of both attacks significantly reduce the likelihood of a game finishing with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Freiburg win at full-time, as the visitors have won their last five matches, while Paderborn recorded two wins and three draws over the same period. Freiburg have recently averaged 3.6 goals scored per match and just 0.8 conceded, clearly outperforming Paderborn’s averages of 2.0 and 1.2, respectively. Before the break, both teams are difficult to overcome: Paderborn have not been trailing in any of their recent matches at half-time, while Freiburg were level at the break in 40% of their games, increasing the likelihood of an even start. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage grows, as they average 2.4 goals in the second half compared with Paderborn’s 1.0 and have won this period in 100% of their recent appearances. Paderborn’s home data is based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be given to Freiburg’s current run and their advantage in points per match: 3.0 compared with the hosts’ 1.8.