Paderborn vs Hertha BSC: match statistics
The match shapes up as a close encounter between two teams with similar aspirations, currently sitting in 5th and 6th place in the table respectively. Paderborn displays strong home form with a 64% win rate at home, although their recent overall results (1.4 PPG) indicate a slight dip in performance. Hertha BSC impresses with their away effectiveness – 50% wins and a high 60% clean sheet rate, making them a tough opponent. The key factor is Paderborn's advantage in possession (56% vs 48%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.97 vs the visitors' 1.4 xG away). However, Hertha compensates for this with better shot conversion (16% vs 10%). Considering the recent form of both sides (draws and dropped points) and their similar offensive statistics, the most probable scenario appears to be a draw or a narrow home victory.
Paderborn vs Hertha BSC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paderborn played Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 22 February 2026. Final score: 5:2.
Current form
Paderborn: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Hertha BSC: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paderborn scores 1.50 and concedes 1.09 goals per match. Hertha BSC scores 1.36 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paderborn 59%, Hertha BSC 36%. Over 2.5: Paderborn 59%, Hertha BSC 45%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Paderborn has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.45. Paderborn: 15.8 shots per match, Hertha BSC: 12.6.
Match halves
Paderborn: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.95. Hertha BSC: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.82.
Goals by minute
Paderborn: 46-60 (8 goals). Hertha BSC: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. Bundesliga: 2.89 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match shapes up as a close encounter between two teams with similar aspirations, currently sitting in 5th and 6th place in the table respectively. Paderborn displays strong home form with a 64% win rate at home, although their recent overall results (1.4 PPG) indicate a slight dip in performance. Hertha BSC impresses with their away effectiveness – 50% wins and a high 60% clean sheet rate, making them a tough opponent. The key factor is Paderborn's advantage in possession (56% vs 48%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.97 vs the visitors' 1.4 xG away). However, Hertha compensates for this with better shot conversion (16% vs 10%). Considering the recent form of both sides (draws and dropped points) and their similar offensive statistics, the most probable scenario appears to be a draw or a narrow home victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paderborn | Hertha BSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paderborn is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Paderborn · 1.2 pts / match - Hertha BSC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paderborn is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Paderborn · 1.36 goals / match - Hertha BSC
Paderborn scores in 82% of matches (18 of 22 matches), while Hertha BSC keeps a clean sheet in 50% (11 of 22 matches).
Hertha BSC scores in 73% of matches (16 of 22 matches), while Paderborn keeps a clean sheet in 32% (7 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paderborn
Over / Under - Hertha BSC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paderborn - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 55%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hertha BSC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paderborn
Hertha BSC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Paderborn | Liga | Hertha BSC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.59 | 2.89 | ▼ 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | • 59% | 58% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 59% | 59% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 24% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 69% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 82% | 84% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Paderborn 1 - 0 - 0 Hertha BSC. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paderborn vs Hertha BSC?
The 2. Bundesliga match finished Paderborn 5:2 Hertha BSC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Paderborn vs Hertha BSC?
Paderborn score 1.50 goals per game on average and Hertha BSC 1.36. The 2. Bundesliga average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Paderborn's matches and 36% of Hertha BSC's.
What form are Paderborn and Hertha BSC in?
Over the last 5 games Paderborn have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Hertha BSC 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paderborn vs Hertha BSC?
The statistical background for Paderborn vs Hertha BSC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.