Paderborn vs Magdeburg: match statistics
Paderborn vs Magdeburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paderborn played Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 4:3.
Current form
Paderborn: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Magdeburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paderborn scores 1.68 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Magdeburg scores 1.54 and concedes 1.82. League average: 2.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paderborn 64%, Magdeburg 50%. Over 2.5: Paderborn 61%, Magdeburg 57%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Magdeburg has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.74. Paderborn: 15.8 shots per match, Magdeburg: 16.3.
Match halves
Paderborn: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 1.11. Magdeburg: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Paderborn: 76-90+ (12 goals). Magdeburg: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. Bundesliga: 2.89 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Paderborn is the favorite based on superior offensive metrics and form: the home side scores on average 1.93 goals per home match (47 goals this season) and has an average xG of 1.99, while Magdeburg score 1.64 goals away with an xG of 1.70. Defensively Paderborn concedes 1.36 goals at home on average versus 1.71 conceded by Magdeburg on the road, and in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded 5 goals while the visitors have conceded 7. Form also favors the hosts: Paderborn in their last 5 matches have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game; Magdeburg have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 1.4 points per game. Additionally Paderborn have higher possession (57% vs 53%), more shots (18 vs 16.07) and more shots on target (6.07 vs 5.79), and the visitors failed to score in 36% of away matches compared to only 7% of such matches for the hosts. Considering the higher xG (1.99 vs 1.70), the better home goal difference (an 8-goal advantage in home matches) and the lower home loss rate (21% vs 50% away losses), I forecast a Paderborn victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal for BTTS comes from recent form: in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 80% each, while each team’s season BTTS rate is 50% and the league BTTS level is 60%. Offensive and shooting metrics support a goals perspective: Paderborn has xG 1.8 and averages 5.07 shots on target, Magdeburg has xG 1.7 and 5.79 shots on target. Comparing xG to the opponent’s defense is conclusive — home xG 1.8 versus xG against Magdeburg 1.77 and away xG 1.7 versus xG against Paderborn 1.37, so both sides have an offensive edge over the opponent’s defense. Additionally the hosts have scored 47 goals this season and the visitors 43, while conceding on average 1.93 and 1.71 goals respectively, with clean sheet rates of only 14% and 21%, which reduces the likelihood of a single-team shutout. On this basis I project BTTS 'Yes' as more likely at 75% versus 25% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based forecast: Paderborn has xG_for 1.80, Magdeburg 1.70, and accounting for xG_against (visitors 1.77 and home 1.37) yields expected goals of ~1.79 for the home side and ~1.54 for the visitors (total 3.33). Converting total xG=3.33 into a Poisson distribution gives roughly an 85% chance for Over 1.5, 65% for Over 2.5 and 43% for Over 3.5. Seasonal metrics support this: Paderborn records Over1.5 in 86% of matches, Magdeburg in 79%, while Over2.5 is 57% season-wide for both (last 5 matches: Over2.5 = 60%). Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams scored 9 goals each (averaging 1.8 per team) and BTTS in those 5 games was 80% for both sides, increasing the likelihood of goals. As a result the strongest signal is to play the over on the 1.5 line (pick: Over 1.5), while Over 2.5 remains moderately likely (65%) and Over 3.5 is less certain (43%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Halftime statistics favor Magdeburg: the visitors led at the break in 36% of matches, while Paderborn led only in 14%, and Paderborn scored an average of 0.43 goals by half-time versus 0.86 for the visitors. For the full match the advantage is also with the visitors — Magdeburg win 43% of games, while Paderborn win only 21%, with average season points of 1.36 for the visitors and 0.79 for the hosts. Although Paderborn generate 1.80 xG per match versus 1.70 xG for Magdeburg, opponents of Magdeburg average 1.77 xG against them, which, combined with the better win rate, suggests higher goal efficiency for the visitors. Paderborn, however, often score in the second half (7 goals in minutes 61–75 and 6 goals in minutes 76–90), so I allow for turnaround and draw-after-break scenarios. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is a visitor lead at the break and a visitor victory at full-time, hence the selection of 2/2 as the best option.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paderborn | Magdeburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paderborn is 57% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Paderborn · 1.4 pts / match - Magdeburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paderborn is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.68 goals / match - Paderborn · 1.54 goals / match - Magdeburg
Paderborn is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Paderborn · 1.82 goals / match - Magdeburg
Paderborn scores in 86% of matches (24 of 28 matches), while Magdeburg keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 matches).
Magdeburg scores in 64% of matches (18 of 28 matches), while Paderborn keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paderborn
Over / Under - Magdeburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paderborn is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Paderborn · 1.11 pts / match - Magdeburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paderborn - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Magdeburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paderborn
Magdeburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Paderborn | Liga | Magdeburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.79 | 2.89 | ▲ 3.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 61% | 58% | • 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 24% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 68% | • 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 86% | 85% | • 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Paderborn 1 - 0 - 0 Magdeburg. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paderborn vs Magdeburg?
The 2. Bundesliga match finished Paderborn 4:3 Magdeburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Paderborn vs Magdeburg?
Paderborn score 1.68 goals per game on average and Magdeburg 1.54. The 2. Bundesliga average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Paderborn's matches and 50% of Magdeburg's.
What form are Paderborn and Magdeburg in?
Over the last 5 games Paderborn have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Magdeburg 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paderborn vs Magdeburg?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Paderborn vs Magdeburg: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.